RE:RE:I wouldn't count on itThat's the narrative the progressive governments and media are always trying to sell - and it worked in 2020 (Elizabeth May "Oil is dead" - May 2020), but have you ever done the numbers to see what that looks like and if its possible?
Everyone loves a story, but no one likes to do the math.
CanadianPatriot wrote: Deal neglects to consider the fact that the world is weaning off of oil. Is oil going anywhere in our lifetimes no we need it for a number of reasons. However, weaning off of oil means that lower oil prices will eventually start to impact the value of this deal. Some say 5 years for EV to impact oil, some say ten years. So by prolonging the potential payout over the long term makes no sense to me.
masfortuna wrote: I think the deal should and will go through. On a metrics level with production staying flat they should be at 140 million barrels in June 2024. Assuming that from the FCF they could buy 50 million shares or about 275 million CDN, it will take 6 years to payout the shares given out. Any increase in production and any additional funds allocated to the buyback will accelerate the elimination of the 300 million shares. Add the remaining fcf (225 million) for the divy (85 million) and the debt and we are looking at 13 years AT TODAY's LEVELS OF PRODUCTION. Any increase in wti pricing OR increased production drastically reduces the timeline to our preset share structure and debt. I say good deal although it appears to be a calculated risk on the direction of oil.