RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:happy days are coming Anyone can pick dramatic endpoints to make something look good or bad. The key is to know when we are in an inflection and capitalize.
I have also owned Baytex since 2015, though much less back then compared to now. There have been several valuable troughs the most obvious the drop in the pandemic where it actually traded at $0.30 for almost a month. Lots of time for everyone to get some shares if they wanted. Now looking at a 20x from there. Tough to beat that.
I also own MEG from the pandemic, though not at the low. More around $2.20. It didn't trade in the sub $2 for long, maybe only a day or two. They were well hedged going into that crash so it was another obvious add. The market was giving no value to their hedges and of course oil was not going to trade in the teens forever, but the market was pricing these companies for bankruptcy.
The past is the past. What matter is where we go from today. I would argue that we are at another inflection point on BTE. Baytex will outperfrom most oil stocks over the next 2 years from today including MEG. The value far exceeds all other names at 30%+ FCF yield due to an overhang from the merger.
I have been selling some MEG to buy BTE over the last couple weeks.
1234bmth wrote: Of course they are different Corporation and different assets, no 2 companies have the same assets, but the share price performance can be compared over the long period of time while the oil price is the same for them, based on bottom of 2020 the question is why BTE dropped to .33 and MEG held 4 time higher at $1.22. Moreover each investor has a different time period to compare companies, I did the comparison in 7 years because I initially bought both in 2016 and unfortunately made a mistake to sold MEG at around $9 and added BTE, you may have a different situation and may have bought during COVID market crash at .33 so for yuo it may not differ significantly.