Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Eric Nuttall tweets of the day !!!

[red2000]

 

 

See new posts

 

Conversation

Eric Nuttall received a reply

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eric Nuttall

@ericnuttall

 

US shale production is not suddenly "surging." This bearish narrative we believe is wrong, has been extremely damaging to sentiment, and is rooted in the EIAs recent inclusion of NGL production in their weekly reported calculation of "oil" production (see chart 1). The more reliable EIA 914 data shows that while production is growing, it is only modestly above our original expectation for ~500k bbl/d of growth in 2023. Shale surging??? Texas + New Mexico (68% of Lower 48 production) has been relatively flat for the last 6 months (up 100k bbl/d). While total US production is up 466k bbl/d over that time, 27% of that growth has come from offshore (long lead projects) and 45% from North Dakota (largely from privates from what we can tell). Finally, remember there was a Winter storm last December that impacted production by ~300k bbl/d so the denominator for calculating YTD growth is artificially low. Have US shale companies suddenly lost "discipline" and will OPEC+ flood the market to teach them another lesson? We think not. With the US oil rig count down 20% YTD, DUC inventory depleted, 2024 budgets being set with a $71WTI strip, and many private operator sales processes having concluded, we believe US shale production will grow less than consensus in 2024 (and beyond).

 

See new posts

 

Conversation

Eric Nuttall received a reply

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eric Nuttall

@ericnuttall

 

US shale production is not suddenly "surging." This bearish narrative we believe is wrong, has been extremely damaging to sentiment, and is rooted in the EIAs recent inclusion of NGL production in their weekly reported calculation of "oil" production (see chart 1). The more reliable EIA 914 data shows that while production is growing, it is only modestly above our original expectation for ~500k bbl/d of growth in 2023. Shale surging??? Texas + New Mexico (68% of Lower 48 production) has been relatively flat for the last 6 months (up 100k bbl/d). While total US production is up 466k bbl/d over that time, 27% of that growth has come from offshore (long lead projects) and 45% from North Dakota (largely from privates from what we can tell). Finally, remember there was a Winter storm last December that impacted production by ~300k bbl/d so the denominator for calculating YTD growth is artificially low. Have US shale companies suddenly lost "discipline" and will OPEC+ flood the market to teach them another lesson? We think not. With the US oil rig count down 20% YTD, DUC inventory depleted, 2024 budgets being set with a $71WTI strip, and many private operator sales processes having concluded, we believe US shale production will grow less than consensus in 2024 (and beyond).