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Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Alternate Symbol(s):  BTE

Baytex Energy Corp. is a Canada-based energy company. The Company is engaged in the acquisition, development and production of crude oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and in the Eagle Ford in the United States. Its crude oil and natural gas operations are organized into three main operating areas: Light Oil USA (Eagle Ford), Light Oil Canada (Pembina Duvernay / Viking) and Heavy Oil Canada (Peace River / Peavine / Lloydminster). Its Eagle Ford assets are located in the core of the liquids-rich Eagle Ford shale in South Texas. The Eagle Ford shale covers approximately 162,000 net acres of crude oil operations. Its Viking assets are located in the Dodsland area in southwest Saskatchewan and in the Esther area of southeastern Alberta. It also holds 100% working interest land position in the East Duvernay resource play in central Alberta.


TSX:BTE - Post by User

Post by 2021Gambleon Jan 31, 2024 6:58am
223 Views
Post# 35854295

@Frank007 - it is a big deal

@Frank007 - it is a big deal
First...  why you always gotta be so negative?

I posted a bit of news relevant to O&G, which others might not have seen

Second, yes it being only 3.1mb is significant - and is a positive for O&G stocks - especially with tight supply already in the market .  Sure it's only 25% of one day of US production, but that is actually pretty significant when thought about for just a little while over coffee

Further, the $78 price is significant as it is at or about current market price - these 4 big players can hedge that no problem at all for the near term delivery to the SPR, and the opportunity cost should WTI rise is insignificant to them on that volume - and yes, I see WTI rising into the $80's shortly

Finally, yes, as you mention - lets look at the SPR

The SPR is at 356.5mb vs. 590.8mb just 2 years ago.  that's 234mb that the SPR is still down.
to put that in perspective for y'all

Here are the current oil by PAD District from last weeks report
east coast 7.6mb
Midwest 108.9mb
Rocky mountain 23.6
West coast 48.5
Alaska in transit 5.2
The above is 193.8mb
Gulf coast 232.0
Total commercial 420.7

So, to refill the SPR TODAY, can't even be done without fully depleting the gulf coast...or alternatively, depleting the entire countries storage except for the gulf coast..

That is huge because 3mb is all they can suck away from the market every couple of months.

At 3.1mb it would take 75 such contracts to refill the SPR back to 590mb

If done weekly ... 1.4 years

If done monthly 6.25 years

If done quarterly 18.75 years

Or....if all 13mbd of current production is put into the SPR....were talking 18 days....5% of the annual US production - any supply disruption in the US and well, sky truly is the limit for WTI

There is a world of hurt coming to the US as WTI is concerned - and when I look at BTE swinging near the 52 week low with a short equal to a full days trading volume...and Juniper at 12.25% ownership and selling - which is a pretty significant headwind to current share price...

As for Juniper shares - lets chat that for a moment....when they drop below 10% those shares become free game to BTE for a bulk share repurchase do they not??....now wouldn't that be sweet!?

Anyway, I thought that pittance of SPR deposit and the $78 was significant

Cheers all

Happy trading, and/or enjoy the ride to $10 for BTE

I wish I had bought more at $0.315, but then hindsight and all....

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