Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Meanwhile, back on the farm

[Maxmoe]

Shorts are getting margin calls, again. It'll be a long time and probably the next mgmt team before they relist in New York. Screw New York. Baytex is still a small cap that barely appears on Canadian institutional radars never mind the yanks. Clearwater will get some attention this summer. Bte is in the drivers seat now. What to do with all that cash flow? Organic growth through the drill bit? Check. Buy a few tuck in properties from desperate sellers or their banks? Okay. Stock buybacks, divy? Yes please. Or, all of the above? Heck yeah! The stock is still historically cheap with $65 oil and oil looks higher. There are so many cheap oil producers to choose from.

[Marty57]

Much as I like your optimism, I think they will be paying down debt with every spare dollar for a year or two.  Their hedging program didn't do them any favours this year either.  BUT... it is obvious that things are looking up for Baytex.

[Unlucky13]

At $70 oil they will make an extra $150 million on top of the $200 million projected per annum.  They owe about $400 million in 2024.  Considering 6 months has passed for 2021 that's $275 million they will make this year.  They are 2 billon in debt. Basically they will have made about 3/4 of what they owe in 3 years.  That is not enough to buyback shares or pay a dividend.

[Antonyius]

Pretty much this, they really need to cut that debt level down because that's institutional investors' biggest knock against them. A dividend is probably one of the most short-sighted things they can do right now.

[Maxmoe]

Sure, they can pay down debt too but that is nowhere as critical as last year. It was a stroke of genius/luck when they refinanced their bonds in early 2020. Now it's more about show me the money! Institutions aren't buying energy companies other than a few are buying a few large caps like cnq and SU. If bte had 500 million less debt today, there would be no more institutional or

[Maxmoe]

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/video/eric-nuttall-discusses-baytex-energy~2057048 here is Eric not liking baytex last October because of its debt.  When it was 45 cents. Today, it's one of his top picks and no worries about debt. It's a 4 bagger since then. To give him credit, his top pick meg was a 3 bagger. After it doubles again,maybe triples again, I will predict 'the

[barneyj44]

Eric didn't like Baytex at $40 and $50 oil, at $67 plus oil he loves it.

[JTDOUBLE]

If you believed in 70-80 dollars wti by summer at 2 bucks Bte is no brainer here !!  In the last oil bull run lasted over 10 years where SU over 100 bucks And Bte also on that level .. even a 5 years bull run Bte at this level is a steal.. 

[Antonyius]

max I think you got some good points but out of the lot of the analysts Eric's nine point is probably rated as being higher risk higher reward than most funds. Baytex is a value play that most of us retail guys recognize hence why we have it, and at current oil prices it stands to generate a considerable amount of returns. Those big institutional guys want to see sustainable long term free

[Maxmoe]

We all own it for the same reason. It's the one and only reason. Because we think it's going to go up and make us lots of money. I suggest you research a little more the term "value play" because you might be the only one in the world I have ever heard who describes baytex, or any other small to mid sized oil producer, as a value play. There is no such thing as sustainable long