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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Alternate Symbol(s):  BTE

Baytex Energy Corp. is a Canada-based energy company. The Company is engaged in the acquisition, development and production of crude oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and in the Eagle Ford in the United States. Its crude oil and natural gas operations are organized into three main operating areas: Light Oil USA (Eagle Ford), Light Oil Canada (Pembina Duvernay... see more

TSX:BTE - Post Discussion

Baytex Energy Corp > Check out FCF $76 = Liquid gold 1/2 billion+
View:
Post by BayStreetWolfTO on Jul 05, 2021 1:26pm

Check out FCF $76 = Liquid gold 1/2 billion+

Summary and details below. For perspective (including factoring hedges!)

Scenario #1 (current price) = $520m FCF $0.92 per share FCF

Scenario #2 (I.e. $80 WTI current price + $5) = $590m FCF $1.04 per share FCF

Scenario #3 (I.e. $100 WTI current price + $25) = $910m FCF $1.61 per share FCF

Not including increased production through 2021 or 2022...on top of better 2022 hedges!

Feel free to double check my math based on current prices including hedges

BTE presentation
>$250m 2021
Assumptions
WTI $60
WCS $48
NYMEX - $2.80
FX - $0.80

If you annualized current prices take original $250m and add
WTI $76 (add $208m)
WCS $61 (add $42m)
NYMEX - $3.70 (add $ 15m)
FX - $0.82 (add $10m)

Total annualized at these prices $520m

If you annualized say near $80 current prices take original $250m and add
WTI $80 (add $260m)
WCS $65 (add $54m)
NYMEX - $3.30 (add $ 10m)
FX - $0.83 (add $15m)

Total annualized at these prices $590m

If you annualized say near $100 current prices take original $250m and add
WTI $100 (add $520m)
WCS $85 (add $118m)
NYMEX - $3.30 (add $ 10m)
FX - $0.83 (add $15m)

Total annualized at these prices $910m
Comment by Investnowplease on Jul 05, 2021 2:37pm
Agree.  That takes debt to cash down to 1-2.5.  Very manageable
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