Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Alternate Symbol(s): BTE

Energy Oil & Gas E&P

Baytex Energy Corp. is a Canada-based energy company. The Company is engaged in the acquisition, development and production of crude oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and in the Eagle Ford in the United States. Its crude oil and natural gas operations are organized into three main operating areas: Light Oil USA (Eagle Ford), Light Oil Canada (Pembina Duvernay... see more

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Baytex Energy Corp > 2of2 BTE Battle Plan – Debt payment and Share buyback plan

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Post by BayStreetWolfTO on Sep 15, 2021 8:43am

2of2 BTE Battle Plan – Debt payment and Share buyback plan

Topics: 1. Battle Plan, 2. Company Comment, 3 Clearwater

Battle plan-Share buyback assumption with only ***$65 oil***. I could get used to $65+ oil...at a 50/50 split that would give us $240 million a year for share buyback. That should be able to make a dent. Below is a "What IF" on Q4 @ $65 along with all 2022 @ $65...remember in 2022 they are hedged in 2022 and get I believe $58 for oil if between $48 and $58...on the 3-way. My thoughts on a BTE battle plan (debt/share buyback) @ $65. Hopefully that $240M+ could buyback a lot of shares IF oil was $65 throughout Q4 21 and all of 2022.

		Millions ($)
-------------------------------	--------------------------------------------	-------------
	Jun 30th Net Debt	$1,629
	Jul payment (1H FCF)	$125
2021 Debt payment	Q3 FCF ( @ $70 WTI)	$130
2021 Debt payment	Q4 FCF ( @ $65 WTI)	$120
	2021 Ending Net Debt	$1,254

2022 Debt payment	Q1 FCF ( @ $65 WTI)	$60
2022 Debt payment	Q2 FCF ( @ $65 WTI)	$60
2022 Debt payment	Q3 FCF ( @ $65 WTI)	$60
2022 Debt payment	Q4 FCF ( @ $65 WTI)	$60
	2022 Ending Net Debt	$1,014


2022 Share buyback	Q1 FCF ( @ $65 WTI) 50%	$60
2022 Share buyback	Q2 FCF ( @ $65 WTI) 50%	$60
2022 Share buyback	Q3 FCF ( @ $65 WTI) 50%	$60
2022 Share buyback	Q4 FCF ( @ $65 WTI) 50%	$60
	2022 Total Share buyback ($)	$240

Given the large short position....as I have said shorts are running out of time...soon the company will be buying back shares...

Straight from Ed the CEO of Baytex at the Enercom Conference. "2022 offering direct return to shareholders" "We feel buying back our shares would be extremely prudent and we could take a big chunk back in this early phase"
Reference: https://www.theoilandgasconference.com/baytex-energy-corporation/
Timeline - 8:30-8:55min

Great September Investor Presentation! All companies need something exciting to talk about...Clearwater is a gem in North America!

#	Area	Well	Spud	Rig Rel	# Laterals	30-day IPR	Comments
1	Peavine	100/04-34-078-16W5	07-Jan	15-Jan	2	175
2	Peavine	102/04-34-078-16W5	15-Jun	21-Jun	2	175
3	Peavine	100/13-27-078-16W5	22-Jun	06-Jul	8	695
4	Peavine	100/05-34-078-16W5	08-Jul	18-Jul	8	412
5	Peavine	100/11-31-078-15W5	20-Jul	4-Aug	8	TBD	Sept 1-750 bbl/d