Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Ramping up Clearwater drilling.

[FreddieSanford]

Could management potentially double or triple the currently planned drill program this year for the Clearwater prospect based on strengthening confidence in the play with drills to date?

Any opinion on the likelihood of such a move and the market reaction to it?

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Good afternoon Freddie, Baytex in their February presentation show 18 Clearwater wells in 2022. Q: What would it take to double that to 36 wells or triple to 54 wells? A: Well from a FCF spend perspective that is relatively easy 36 Wells = $25M additional (I believe $1.4M/well) 54 Wells = $50M additional (I believe $1.4M/well) Q: How would it be funded A: At $90 FCF is $2.2M/day FCF At $80 FCF

[FreddieSanford]

Thanks for the reply BayStreet ... I agree that 50% FCF should continue to flow to tamp down debt ... steadfast and methodical. From there I wonder what gives the market what it would respond to favourably  the most. Is it your opinion that bumping up barrels more than the range you cite would be less impactful to the stock price than direct returns via dividend or share buyback ... or

[JohnnyDoe]

for what it's worth, I think there's been so much said about fcf with mid caps and the potential for "meaningful" shareholder returns that those companies that don't come forward with those programs will be punished.

[FreddieSanford]

Johnny ... I've read your sentiment on the issue of "meaningful" returns to shareholders in a number of posts you've made on the issue.  In your opinion ... do "meaningful" barrel increases via Clearwater not become as compelling and/or more compelling than sole focus on the divvy or share buyback program you are pointing to? I like all three avenues and am

[JohnnyDoe]

if I were to rank increased capex, buy backs and dividends I'd rank them in reverse order I just wrote them. That's just what I think based on listening to the talking heads. There's been so much talk about it, if it doesn't materialize I think it's a problem. Just my opinionso Clearwater. I think that there's already going to be a very pleasant upside surprise with

[Bennys65]

We have three wells drilled in 2021 coming onstream in jan 2022.Two are next to the boomers in the middle of the play and one is in the 20 section land we recently got.On feb 24 we get reserve numbers .Hopefully they give us an update which should be very good.More results over 500 and intital derisking of the new land.should get the markets attention.i am a big fan of the clearwater but bte has

[FreddieSanford]

Benny ... I'm a fan of unhedged barrels ... so going hard on Clearwater barrels to the tune of doubling or tripling the current plan seems like a prescient move if made.

[FreddieSanford]

Johnny ... I guess I look at increase in Capex in a different way ... mostly reflective of all the talking that has been done on Clearwater being pretty much or all the way self funded ... organic growth as they say and with that in mind I consider capital expense there for doubling or tripling barrels out of the play vs the current plan as a pretty compelling upside for the market. Barrels mean