Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Red, JD revised Q1 estimates

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Had to update my netbacks, aff and fcf formula on my quarterly schedule

BOE/D $82,000

Rev $595M

Operating Netback $365M

AFF $267M

FCF $157M (note this can be impacted by additional capex?)

 

Debt Target $1.26B

Note I am using ~ $81 WTI (due to the December dip caused my COVID/SPR) along with a plug on Nat Gas/FX 

This is all just an estimate/my guess (based on new hedges)

[jdmecomber]

BOE/D $82,000 Rev $595M Operating Netback $365M AFF $267M FCF $157M (note this can be impacted by additional capex?)   I thought with the new hedges it would be much better but it doesn't appear to be too much more. 

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Remember Q1 pricing started November. We had December (January front month) which saw WTI dip into the high $60's See my earlier chart Q2 certainly is a major change Q4 to Q1 only shifted roughly $76+ to $80+ However current pricing will impact buyback cash and debt repayment...this is timing.

[ManitobaCanuck]

Agree , but there might be correlation of slightly better hedges in Q1 2022 VS Q42021

[jdmecomber]

Agree , but there might be correlation of slightly better hedges in Q1 2022 VS Q42021 I assumed it was a substantial amount. 

[ManitobaCanuck]

So , guess ,expect no fireworks till q2results where we might see double digits ..

[Maxmoe]

You need something else to fixate on other than hedges. They don't matter. The beautiful life saving hedges did not save bte from going to 29 cents. It has not held back the 20 fold increase in the stock price since. It will not hold it back from hitting 7,8,9 etc. as long as they have debt, they will have hedges. Just like EVERY producer with debt does. Oh to be debt free and tell the bank

[ManitobaCanuck]

All hail King Maxmoe ..You nailed it dude in 2020...