Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

To all Nervous Nellies and Worry Warts

[ManitobaCanuck]

I bought this in 2020 nd early 2021 when this was under a dollar and kept purchasing.
 oil cycles last atleast 3-7 yrs . Last one was 2009-2014 and Baytex rose from 12 buck to 40-50 ,bucks as the market realized its potential . A 2x-3x gain 
 Similarly this will rise to  12- 20$ by mid of this oil cycle and hang there for a few years  ,as they shed debt and buyback stock.
This is not the time to sell but to buy more and wait for Q2 results .
Atleast I am buying now as those who bought for a post result popo are selling in loss .

[Wildfury]

Welcome back Manitoba, nice post with some insight. I have a question regarding the NCIB that Baytex will be implementing and pardon me for my ignorance on the subject. My question is open to anyone that knows the answer to this, why spend hundreds of millions of dollars to repurchase and cancel shares when Baytex can if legally possible do a 1 for 2 reverse split. This would get the shares down

[topdown99]

You bring up a very valid point Wildfury , I must admit I have thought about that myself as there are a few stocks that could employ a 1 for 1.5 or 2 reverse split that would immediately solve this preceived problem . Arx is another that comes to mind who outstanding shares were increased as a direct result of asset purchases .  I have no answers regarding the cost or consequences of such a

[ManitobaCanuck]

Hi Wildfury    1) Amazing point you have bought up . Very well thought . Could be a possible solution to reducing share count . But it is a great idea. Not sure if this could be sent to thier Investor Relations . 2) Again a very low share count ,could put them at risk of hostile takeover.  There is a possiblity someone might buy them off for cheap  for  8-10 bucks/stock(5

[Walleyewarrior]

thought of this aswell but I think the long game remains the same, just the $50 range would return with half the shares at peak cycle but I'm also okay with 25$ with current share count being ncib'd at top cycle. Heres another thought I have why aren't the cash oil monsters doing Dutch auctions instead of ncib ala west fraser timber? Also great point on a dip in price for buybacks only

[Wildfury]

Thanks for the imput TD, someone will have the answers. On the topic of reverse splits, Bombardier Inc (BBD. B) TO is pursuing this with a 1-10. They trade at $1.29 approximately on the TSX. Bombardier has over 1.5 billion outstanding class B shares with one word of advise, do not buy this, they've been losing money for years, terribly mismanaged, I know because I have worked for them for many

[topdown99]

Some great points made already , excellent debate so far on this point with good points on both sides of the issue . I would add there is an innately negative reaction to the announcement of a reverse split because it's generally a move of desperation to keep from being delisted , which is NOT the case in this instance . Being involved in this kind of discusion is why I originally opened an

[ResearchSeeker]

Topdown, It is a good discussion today with some posts. I have two things to say about stock splits, not only specific to Bayex. Splits, foward or reverse, cost money. I don't think Baytex will do one, though I could be wrong. It would be better to do it now or in the future, if it must happen, than during the pandemic. If a reverse split were to take place, I would prefer it happen after

[masfortuna]

Wild the reverse split doesn't help the metrics.  It's like having 10 dimes and exchanging them for 4 quarters.  The marketcap remains the same.  Buying back shares, on the otherhand does increase the value of the company.  Here is an analogy: I have 10 shares worth $1 giving my net worth to be equal to $10.  If I remove 2 shares I will now hold a total of 8 shares

[ManitobaCanuck]

I get that mas , but the issue here is not bookvalue of shares but the float/sharecount. The share count decreases ,reducing fluctuations .

[masfortuna]

Oh I understand that as well but at roughly 550 million shares, the removal of 20 million will not affect liquidity. Heck the removal of 200 million won't affect liquidity either ;)