Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Baytex - Nice Quarter - Waiting for a full combined

[ResearchSeeker]

Greetings, and Yes, I am still here in the shadows.

On the merger related share price fall, which was enhanced by seasonality, the owners of Ranger probably saw what most everybody knows - the company being acquired goes up, and the acquiring company goes down. Baytex and Ranger shareholders were no different. Ranger holders saw this coming, and sold into strength, while Baytex holders hedged or sold, and waited for news and details to be confirmed before taking a new position, which is probably still a work in progress at this time.

I know many on this board already know this, though new people need to hear it.

I am still waiting for Q3 and the combined numbers for a full quarter to get on board with this merger, though I am feeling better about it. My opinion is that institutions will want to see at least two combined quarters before they have conviction.

Red's institutional holdings posts were encouraging and appreciated.

Back to the shadows for me. I am busier than ever these days.

RS

[masfortuna]

Good L Luck RS. 

[red2000]

Hey Hey RS is back. I am always happy to read you. See below something to think about... plenty of cash coming fast for Baytex. A nice problem ! Feel free to comments ! So don't wait to long, for a dime like daytraders ! But DYDD !!! I've already bought plenty of shares recently at an avg. of 4,70$, shares initially sold between 6,25 and 8,30$ in 2022 !!!  I made a very

[Nothingmatters]

RS is fair weather friend...

[JohnnyDoe]

So Red, i posted on this before. 45M extra fcf at 75 wti. So that's in the bank because wti is above 75 in H2. i think that at an extra 5 bucks wti  works out to 98M fcf so half of that in H2 is 49M, 50% to shareholders. Call it 25M to shareholders.   45+25 = 70M.  What do you think becomes of this money? It's roughly 8.5 cents in a special dividend at year end based

[red2000]

Hi JD ! I have the same question what are they going to do with this extra FCF ??? At 85$ WTI, Baytex sensitivity == an extra 436M$ annually of AFF. At the end, it's roughly another 120M$ - 150M$ of FCF !!! After paying 75M$ for the LT Debt what's next ... They will swim in the money !!! My answer : Increase dividend for year end 2023 at 0,03 per share it's a 33% increase and

[red2000]

I just received the confirmation about the possibility to buyback shares at the same time with a Normal Course Issuer Bid ( already in force for 68M Shares)   and a Substantial Issuer Bid (for example buyback 1st 1/3 of Juniper shares). I think Baytex will have enough FCF coming to do bought at the same time !! WAIT AND SEE !!!

[Nextlegup]

I wouldnt be at all surprised if Baytex has negotiated a deal to buy back a bunch of shares from Juniper in advance of them becoming free trading... Would benefit both Juniper as well as Baytex... Eliminating the sudden release of BTE shares in the market will keep the share price under control and thus benefit Juniper, as they still have 2/3 of their shares in escrow.

[riddler]

On his first call on BLOOMBERG from the new CEO, he stated that he thought Juniper would not sell - we shall see shortly.  GLTA 

[JohnnyDoe]

On that call, Eric left me with the impression he has a good working relationship with Juniper. If you review the Juniper website, they are energy investors. It seems to me that, in what appears to be a rising environment, Juniper isn't likely interested in getting out of their full position. And if they are, as Eric pointed out, being on the NYSE offers additional opportunities for

[ManitobaCanuck]

;) , guess I deserve some credit for this SIB idea .

[Nothingmatters]

Yes mujawar you do

[ManitobaCanuck]

Who is that ?

[Nothingmatters]

Your facebook name...

[ManitobaCanuck]

Seriously....lol ... keep dreaming :)

[masfortuna]

Hi manitoba. Your post is not in reference to mine is it?

[ManitobaCanuck]

No Masfortuna , not to yours :)