Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Headscratcher

[andy604]

We all know oil is a anti-inflationary commodity, Oil is being dropped by tools we cannot stop, computerized selling, Greedy Hedge funds, but all this will not stop the end result, most oil companies will be rewarded in the 3rd quarter especially BTE , cannot wait.

[1234bmth]

 We are already at the end of Q3.

[Nextlegup]

1234bmth There is a difference between chronologically being at the end of Q3....and the day in which these companies get the opportunity to "Peacock their Q3 Earnings"... The earnings have already been made for Q3, but frankly most of the North American market is ignorrant as to just how much money is being made by these energy companies... By mid October, IMO, the audience and

[1234bmth]

I agree with what you are saying, no doubt if oil holds at current price BTE will jump in Oct, but what my concern is that recently almost all stocks are not moving up in line with oil price and BTE is dropping faster than most others, so the point is if doesn't go up now while oil is holding firm, but oil can't go up every day and a correction in oil price will bring down BTE

[Re1ndeer2]

Free Cash Flow will lift all stocks...patience will beat manipulation..

[1234bmth]

And moreover I have noticed that Shorts most of the time are trying to press share price down when oil price is high and if oil drops then oil stocks automatically go down and they make money, oil stocks really need a sustainable fair oil price than a fast jump and fast drop in order to fight shorts' strategy.

[Nextlegup]

Cashflow numbers are going to be nuts..I'd be very surprised if the market would turn a blind eye as they begin to roll out. Profit and cashflow speak for themselves regardless of the industry...even if crude were to drop another $10-15US many of these companies would still be in great shape.. Heck, Whitecap's divvy has a yield of about 6.2% coming up this month at current price, AND they

[masfortuna]

Just as an fyi, wti traded at $73.86 for the 3rd quarter which means we should be close to the model Bte provided at $75 oil (250 million fcf???). The 4th quarter thus far has oil trading in the 80s but they will report this quarter in late February. 

[1234bmth]

I don't know where you get your data, but I see for Q3 so far WTI is averaging $81.

[1234bmth]

And $73 was in Q2

[masfortuna]

You mean Q3. We are in Q4.

[robert41]

Holy cow MAS i'm messed up how does the 3rd quarter end august 31. That means q4 has 4 months in it? Or does Bte not follow a calendar year and start q1 Dec 1... what don't I know :)

[robert41]

On another note that 51 million cross trade never showed up yesterday I was kinda surprised at that or is something else I don't know about which is more than likely 

[jleer42]

Current futures contracts are for Oct. Oil produced for the rest of Sept is already priced. Very little oil is traded at the spot price.

[robert41]

Thx....at the end of the day cash rolls in and will really show up in q4 numbers especially if $90 oil olds in for a while

[masfortuna]

No. When you are buying oil today you are paying for the October spot pricing of the commodity. The month of august is when you sign contracts for September which means that the price they got in august is what they got for the revs in September.  Now they are signing contracts with October pricing which is q4. Q3 is done insofar as what they got for their oil and the avg. in q3 is $73.85

[David01montreal]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[JohnnyDoe]

Do some reading on front month versus spot price. What Masfortuna is saying is the revenue from the oil being pulled out of the ground today at 90 will be reflected in Q4, not Q3. Oil companies sell on that front month basis. I don't know where he calculated 73 something, I was hoping it was more 77ish. What 1234bmth is calculating is the average spot price for the quarter and it's

[1234bmth]

In every quarter I use this source and as I mentioned before it is matching exactly with what BTE repotrts as realized price for WTI for the same quarter with a small variance of a few cents max $1 and this has been for years that I am using and each time is correct.

[1234bmth]

Q1 average WTI my source $76.24 and BTE reported realized average WTI of $76.13, Q2 my source $73.48 and BTE reported $73.78 and exact same thing for the years before.

[masfortuna]

 Yes except you have the wrong q as your number matches mine at $73'ish.

[1234bmth]

I have the right numbers and right quarters, check my numbers and check BTE's Q1 and Q2 reports for realized average WTI. You are arguing without checking BTE Q1 and Q2 reports. Unless you mean that BTE management report is wrong.

[masfortuna]

I am saying that in q3 based on spot the avg. is $73.85. The q3 numbers will be out in October. I am not sure what you are saying as you are now citing q1 and q2 numbers.  Anyhow you do you and I will do me.

[1234bmth]

I compare what BTE reports realized average WTI for a given quarter with what the average WTI number from the source I use and always matches almost perfect a small variance of a few cents is normal, and I say so far for Q3 which means we have few days left until Sep 30th and this is from the source I use and I will compare this with average WTI realized by BTE in Q3 when they report Q2 financial

[red2000]

Here is an update of my initial post dated sept 14 about the monthly avg. WTI price. Just to be sure that all of us are on the same track ! The actual WTI price that we see right now is for future contract of November 2023 ! The actual BRENT price that we see right now is for future contract of December 2023 !   See below what was publish yesterday on a weekly bases by Oilprice

[masfortuna]

Thx Red. As I said, my numer is $73.85 which I calculatd myself. As I said it is close but is usually slightly off.  Whether $74 or $75, the number serves its purpose.

[robert41]

Thx Johnny 

[masfortuna]

Hi Johnny.  I just kept track of the opening price daily and divided by the days involved. It has been pretty accurate thus far minus a few cents.

[Nextlegup]

Misfortuna... Where are you getting your WTI numbers? WTI has been averaging AT LEAST $6 US higher than the numbers Baytex used for the pro formas ..conservatively! You're significantly understating the revenues of these O&G companies... WTI averaged $76.07 US for July, and $81.39 for Aug..:and we still have the tail end of September to finish off and we all know WTI has been

[masfortuna]

Hey Next, I don't mean to call you out BUT the 3rd quarter ended 3 weeks ago.  The avg wti price for June July and August is $73.85. The company has modelled a wti of $75 for 1 billion fcf annually.  Not every quarter will produce the same fcf as certain expenses are seasonal. My 250 million fcf amount is 1/4 of the yearly amount projected by BTE and may be a little less. 

[1234bmth]

I still don't know where you get your data for me is completely wrong, the source I use is always matching with what BTE reports the average WTI with small difference of a few cents max $1 and I see  $81 average WTI so far for Q3.

[masfortuna]

What? You said it yourself mate. Look at your numbers except that the avg. wti in q3 is $73'ish and not in q2. We finished q3 already and are now in q4. Cotracts now are in q4.  What exactly do you not get?

[OLIVIER1951]

Fin d'  anne  31  dec.,  donc  les  prochain  rsultat  sont  juillet  aout  sept ,publis  fin  oct,va  voir  section  finances...

[Kelvin]

Yeah good point Nextlegup. Operating income growth will drive sp. Bte has no control of the macro effects that will drive imcome growth like wti and wcs prices. But they have considerable influence on volumes sold and reductions in per boe operating expenses or break even that can increase operating income.  Even if their break even is higher in Eagle Ford snd wti drops making their netbacks