Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Metrics per share

[JohnnyDoe]

The company has a few per share metrics in their deck. Production per share and fcf per share. 

I think these stats are an illusion and what I really don't like is I think it is a deliberate illusion. The fcf has gotten worse since the Ranger deal. When the Ranger deal went down, they were talking 1B fcf at 75 wti. They're nowhere near that now. 

Fcf per share. If every month you buy back shares (using our money), you're changing the denominator and therefore the fcf/share ratio should improve. 

Is the fcf/barrel improving or worsening? Because that tells you something 

Debt. The debt to EBITDA ratio is basically stalled. You have to go back 9 quarters for hit to have been worse. 

This share price is in the tank because for 9 quarters they have done sweet f$$k all with respect to debt ratios. Meanwhile the majority of the cdn oil patch has cleaned up the balance sheet. IR will tell you "our balance sheet has never been better" which may be true, but if you push on that, relative to cdn peers, the balance sheet isn't cleaned up which is why the share price is in the tank.

[Kelvin]

That's why I'm focussed in on their all-in break even costs per barrel at Eagle Ford. They could be producing the same given amount of oil at Eagle Ford per day at the same wti but really increase operating income by reducing their break-even costs. In Canada they're doing great with very low break even costs. I'll have to check the numbers again but, if memory serves, the break

[riski]

The share price was in the low 6s at the time of the Ranger acquisition.  Misquoting/exaggerating weakens your comment.   

[riski]

Actually, it was even lower at the time of the Ranger announcement in Feb, 2023: $5.65.  There was a confidence problem before the Ranger acquisition, but plenty of that was the market's reduced confidence in energy.

[riski]

These are some good points, Johnny. It's been slow and frustrating.  I think the falling fcf problem is not unique to BTE though. Inflation has ravaged the fcf metrics for companies across the board sparing some of the oilsands operators somewhat. Traditional E&Ps are suffering as inflation appears to be a cumulative 25-30% over the past 3-4 years. That comes right out of fcf. I

[JohnnyDoe]

I agree there's an outstanding multi bagger potential here that isn't present in many other plays. Part of the reason for that is because the share price has really lagged in the past year.  Nuttall can kick out fcf %age charts at 80 all he wants and it looks great if bte is first on his graphic. But he's been kicking that out for a while now and the share price hasn't really

[riski]

Again, all sound arguments here. The longer BTE takes to fix the balance sheet/share count, the greater chance that they will get caught with their pants down in a market with a cascading oil price and outsized debt.  Oil is volatile. A clean balance sheet goes a long way to weathering the storm when energy prices tank as investors flock to those safer names. Recall WCP in the recovery out

[Marty47]

That was my point abou selling some assets , they won't have a good price for their assets at 60$ oil ....