Phase 3 of my CCJ short: +22.7% over past year Dear Fellow investor / Investor fellow:
One year ago I re-iterated Cameco as a short. It is down 22.7% in that time including dividends paid, while the S&P 500 is up 7.8%, therefore beating an S&P 500 short by 30.4%-pts.
Cummulative return of the 3 CCJ shorts over about 4 years: US $1 goes to $1.43. Meanwhile, for the S&P 500: $1 goes would become 33.6 cents. So my triple short of CCJ returned 4.25 times more than shorting the S&P 500 three times.
INVESTMENTITOS performance on Cameco short idea:
All in US$ Return on Shorting: Performance vs S&P 500:
Date CCJ CCJ div CCJ adj S&P 500 S&P 500 CCJ short In %-pts In %
6.26.15 14.58 15.01 2101.6 -7.8% 22.7% 30.4% 33.0%
Dividends 0.43
Short #3:
6.24.14 19.41 20.282 1950.0 -68.0% -10.0% 58.1% 181.7%
Dividends 0.872
Short #2:
9.29.11 18.44 18.541 1160.4 14.0% 29.6% 15.7% 13.8%
Dividends 0.101
Short #1:
5.12.11 26.35 1348.7
What do I think now? I’ll upgrade to neutral rather than go for a fourth round short. Would need to know more to have an opinion at this point: understanding supply in Kazakhstan and whether Cameco’s giant new mine coming online can make money given the supply seems un-needed, and the chances for another mine flood disaster. Could EDF buy them?
- Investmentitos
PREVIOUS POSTS:
www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.cco/cameco-corp/35?postid=22692123
Cameco Corp T.CCO
Sector: Metals & Mining | Sub-Sector: Industrial Metals & Minerals
Cameco Corp > Phase 2 of my CCJ short +58%-pts better than S&P500 short
June 25, 2014 - 02:55 AM 394 Reads
Post# 22692123
5 starsv
Phase 2 of my CCJ short +58%-pts better than S&P500 short
Its been a while. I try to post with less frequency, but higher quality.
Since I last re-iterated CCJ as a short on 9.29.11:
Price has gone from US$ 18.44 to $19.41, plus US$0.872 in dividends paid = U$20.28, for a loss of 10%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has gond from 1160.4 to 1950, for a gain of 68%. Therefore my CCJ short out-performed an S&P500 short by an awsome +58% points over 33 months. (+18%/yr CAGR likely with less volatility as a pair trade)
With very little effort, I identified an extremely valuable long-term short thesis for any fund having the right viewpoint. Feel free to send cheques.
How do I feel now? My 20 minute take is that It seems little has changed. Veritas research thinks CCJ could be on the hook for $2/share worth of taxes to the Canadian government.
I note that spot Uranium price continues lower, while CCJ is now ramping production of 18 MM lb per year from their new mine - well, that really WILL be useful in keeping them from every making any money since it is about 10% of world demand. And always the happy chance of another flood disaster or at least mine ramp up problem or cost overun one would hate to miss out on.
Concentrate inventory was up alot in 2013, likely from this mine ramp up. Free cash still negative. Still wasting capital to pay dividends.
So? Ok, I'll go for a phase 3 short from here - US$19.41. Lets see what happens.
September 29, 2011 - 05:17 PM
521 Reads | Post# 19101063
My CCO shortsale: +25% in 5 months
for reference, my first post suggesting Cameco was a short was May 12.
May 12 2011: C$25.37
Sept 29 2011: C$ 19.13
Gain on Cameco short: +24.6% (in 4.5 months)
I have seen nothing to change my view. In fact, I am more bearish now that the market is weak, and seems
natural gas is cheap option to provide strong competition for nukes given the shale gas revolution.
I could see CCJ going to below $10, and I'm really not convinced its a safe bargain at any price.
If you are a PM or MM and own, or are considering buying, I encourage you to read my past CCO posts and welcome erudition that overcomes my conceptual thesis