TSXV:CEN.H - Post by User
Post by
stock_itchon Aug 17, 2012 1:56pm
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Post# 20230332
CEN stabilizing, maybe time to get back in
CEN stabilizing, maybe time to get back in
Another good play is Bellatrix (BXE) as they are undervalued (see below) and have just hired Brent Eshleman who is from Daylight Energy and was instrumental in Daylight being aquired for at a huge premium (~250%). His hire is public info as BXE mentioned this discretely 6 pages back in their earnings statement (no separate PR announcing this). What wasn't mentioned is his background with Daylight so stock as yet to react to this, so good time to get in.
Deutsch: Bohrturm mit Bohrgestängerohren, daneben Behälter für die Bohrflüssigkeit. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
BELLATRIX EXPLORATION (T-BXE) $5.40 +0.07
Oil trading at $100 - you would think we would be having more
fun in the oil markets…we are not.
You hear more worries on this blog about gas companies, particularly
those with no liquids at all, given the incredibly weak natural gas
prices and the financial problems they may be facing.
One story that continues to attract rumors as a potential
takeover candidate is Bellatrix Exploration
An analyst at Cannacord, takes a look at Bellatrix,
given the Pengrowth acquisition of NAL energy for $1.9 billion -
writes “ The transaction metrics further underscore our belief
that Bellatrix is undervalued.
Both companies are gas-weighted intermediates moving to
greater liquids with an emphasis on Cardium oil (Bellatrix has exposure
to 110 net sections of Cardium rights; NAL has 182 net sections).
And both have significant production from central Alberta.
Applying the acquisition metrics Pengrowth paid for NAL —
$67,000 per BOE/d and $18.20 per BOE of 2P reserves — implies that Bellatrix should trade at $9.11 using today’s field estimated production of 18,000 BOD/d or $9.30 using the company’s recently reported December 31, 2011 reserves; both are steep discounts of 41.5% and
42.7%, respectively, to the prior close.
A criticism of this comparison would be that NAL is oilier,
weighted 47% to oil versus Bellatrix at 38%, but if we were to assume
a 100:1 heating equivalency ratio, this would imply an NAL valuation
metric of $129,000 per adjusted BOE/d, or a comparable Bellatrix
value of $7.24, again implying a deep discount. Using the same adjustment
to discount reserves would still yield a $6.96 share price.”