RE: New discovery adds over $400MM NPV10Everyday I read Investor Village,on the other side, I am perplexed by the unremitting critique evaluation on theCEN board. They congregate,consult, perform math, scratch their heads, seek answers, then walk away irritatedor dejected or whatever adjective best portrays them. In July of this year, the price was $3.83 pershare. Today it’s $5.85. It’s never good enough it seems.
CEN management says to expect 5-6K bpd newproduction from this discovery. Here we go again. I wish Mgmt would shut their trap and discontinuethis practice of ‘pumping’ numbers to the callers who have CEN Houston officeon speed dial. Callers rush back to IV with‘Guess what mgmt just told me?’ Theyre-assemble, soar with high expectations, only to realize the stock price rocketed3 cents that day. How can this be? The group deflates, evidently more answers arerequired. Rinse and repeat.
$19.50 x 22MM bbls = $429MM or $4 share in AFTERTAX 2P NPV 10.
Who on earth allocates $19.50 per barrel in theground? I certainly do not.
IV group seems fanatical with current productionnumbers. Any deviation from it isunacceptable. That is not what a largeoil company seeks when probing for acquisitions. RESERVES are. Nothing else. Last time Iverified CEN reserves, 2P is/was 58MM. Bankslend on current reserves. What wasdiscovered last week or what fraccing(BB4) may bring to the table is irrelevantat this juncture.
A-09 uncorked a beautiful 2000 barrels of new oilfor the company. The average well inWCSB(Western Canadian SedimentBasin) produces approx.50 barrels per day. I think IV groupshould applaud this.
Let me finish the point I’m trying to make aboutRESERVES.
Bankers PetroleumNI 51-101 disclosure March 2010 came to roughly 250,000,000 of 2P reserves. Applying $10 into the ground, It amounted to $2.5billion. If you divide this by approx.250MM shares outstanding, you get $10 per share. The stock moved from $6 to 9.74 in the spanof a few days.
Mickey2