RE:RE:Auburn2 / Adonis1411auburn2 wrote: I had a look over TOT's fiancials, and you can't go wrong there if you have a patient time frame, but I see better value in the lower liquidity names. For your own DD, take shareholders' equity divided by market cap and compare the various names, and then do a subjective comparison after thinking about the balance sheet and cash flow statements. When money flows back to this sector, assuming it does over the next 16 months, CET will fly, and quickly be a $2 stock. That's well over a 15X return from these levels.
lol...
I love the passion. I, however, do not share the optimism for CET. Will they be around post-COVID, certainly. Can they get to $2 a share? No chance. That'd be a $100 mil market cap, and a $120ish Enterprise Value. At a 5x multiple, that's mid-twenties of EBITDA and CET wasn't even able to generate that during 2017 or 2018 when North America had 35,000+ wells being drilled by 1,200+ rigs. Rig count in the US is 280 and Canada is 85. CET will be fine and has some upside, but there's other companies that are better long term holds (if that's your thing) and have the scale to actually attract institutions (which creates liquidity, which creates value).
I like Total a lot. Insider buying, quite a bit of debt but mostly mortgage debt on real estate (which they could spin) and value buyers. Their rig business is a bit short of big gear (mostly singles & doubles; few triples), solid well servicing and rental businesses (not sexy but makes cash flow), and their underappreciated gem which is the Biddell compression business. That business is worth at least as much as their current market cap (and probably more). AECO gas prices are over $3 and gas development in the current market and in advance of LNG Canada's plant opening up is going to pick up. It's not the most talked about stock, but I like it for all those reasons.
Good luck on the holdings. I'd be careful on WRG though. Lots and lots of debt and G2S2 Capital and MATCO are two of the big 3 holders of stock... Didn't work out so well for the Calfrac shareholders when a similar scenario transpired...