Uncle Point.....weak hands selling out Oversold on low volume.
Lennar and KB Homes will probably take a bath tomorrow.
Fed….who knows if their hawkish tone will further spook the market? Due for an oversold bounce though.
CFP is trading almost at the lowest its been in last 10 years, but now it doesn't have any debt, actual cash of $1.267 billion sitting on its books, and likely US duties to be recovered of $424mm. Doesn't make sense.
Jimmy Pattison wants it to sink so he can make a low ball take over offer for the minority shares and to take it private.
It's currently trading at $138 USD per thousand board feet assuming 1 million of the B.C. board feet will be taken off-line for the foreseable future. Lumber futures for November are at $509!
| Current price - 2022-09-20 | 22.18 | |
| Shares outstanding | 122,520,000 | |
| Market cap | 2,717,493,600 | |
| | | |
| Net cash, not net debt - 2022-06-30 | 1,267,000,000 | |
| Net cash to capitalization | -23% | |
| Cumulative duties - 2022-06-30 | 849,000,000 | |
| Est. duty recovery rate | 50% | |
| Est. duty recovery | 424,500,000 | |
| | | |
| Net cash | 1,267,000,000 | |
| Plus Est. duty recovery | 424,500,000 | |
| Total Cash equivalents | 1,691,500,000 | |
| Shares outstanding | 122,520,000 | |
| Cash per share | 13.81 | |
| | | |
| Current price - 2022-09-20 | 22.18 | |
| Cash per share | 13.81 | |
| Value ex cash | 8.37 | |
| Capacity (MBF) | 6,700,000 | |
| Est. permanent BC curtailment | - 1,000,000 | |
| | 5,700,000 | |
| Price per thousand board feet | 180 | CAD |
| | 1.30 | |
| Price per thousand board feet | 138 | USD |
The lowest price CFP has been in the last ten years was $6.55 which was in March of 2020 during the worst of the pandemic. Buy before the fed announcement.