RE:Canfor trading at $87 USD per thousand board feet of lumber Could not agree more with your analysis and comments.
The only point were i would make a change is that CFP will have to pay taxes on the
duty recovery.But by usuing only a 50% recovery rate you are probably covered.
If i recall properly the last settlement was in the area of 80% coming back to lumber company.
This is crazy, crazy valuation.
Yes, lumber company are in the short term facing major head wind(interest rates and house pricing)
but this does nothing to solve the huge gap in housing needs.
You buy lumber when they are cheap and they have never been that cheap on any
financial metrics.