Cardinal Energy Ltd (Alberta) T.CJ

At what point would cj cut the Div to 5 cents?

[CJInvestor]

Any guesses on the threshold that oil would have to stay at for a while for a div cut to be considered? I'm not talking about out and out cancelation. Just a reduction.

[JohnnyDoe]

That's a good question. If wti stays where it is, I think CJ is fine. If it drops into the 60s, I think you'll see reduced capex and reduced aro spending at least for a while to maintain the dividend but any prolonged stay in the 60s I think results in a dividend reduction Personally I don't want to see any further divvy increases unless we get sustained production up to the mid to

[vwbusman]

just to add to that - no increases until debt is 100% gone

[caretired1]

They said 5 cent div was sustainable at 55 oil. That would assume zero capex. With div at 6, it is sustainable at 58 assuming no capex. The last quarter presentation says 80 oil covers the div at 6 cents, 120 million of capex and 35 million of free cash flow after that for 2023. 35 million of free cash flow is 5 in oil price so no change is needed until 75 oil average for the year based on their

[CJInvestor]

Makes sense. Constructive responses. Ah it's so peaceful today with American Thanksgiving. Obviously DD and rustic are our friends to the south. Explains some things lol 

[Seahawk001]

Im wondering why oil n gas companies dont do divys on a monthly basis or would that be too much of a headache? Oils at a $100 the divy is .10....oils at $60 the divy is .04

[Quintessential1]

Some O&G companies are tieing a variable div to the price of oil.  Th problem isn't the headache of paying it monthly it is that it does not attract long term investment. The dividend now is attractive and longterm.  It is not going to be cut.  If anything, it is going up in 2023. The issue now is the shre price.  Will it hold after the next ex-div with WTI trading

[CJInvestor]

According to Cramer on CNBC, the mother of all oil opportunities is coming in December with a big drop in price so I assume there will definitely be one more big chance to get into CJ at bargain basement prices in the low 8s. 

[Quintessential1]

Good to know.  Now was he referring to CJ itself or the the market or the O&G sector as a whole? I would love to snap up some X-mas shares. GLTY and all.

[CJInvestor]

He was referring to crude prices dropping to high 60s. I don't see it myself. I see max low of 73. But that would be enough to drop CJ to the low 8s I'm sure. Let's hope for WTI high 70s as worst case scenario. 

[Quintessential1]

Ahh I see.  I have heard this prediction repeated and also do not buy it but,  if it gets me a stocking full of CJ X-mas shares on the cheap I am a-okay with that.  I really do not see this rallying again until the next ER report unless the EU's Russian sanctions spike western demand or the recession prematurely fizzles.  I am sure the US is trying to eye the optimum time

[CJInvestor]

Yep I just read a yahoo article that the Div is only 13 percent of profits after tax which makes it super safe. Like other posters said if anything they will trip new projects before cutting the dividend. Unless oil goes to 60 and stays there. Then maybe a trimming of a cent. So we are good! 

[JohnnyDoe]

  I read that article too. Don't believe everything you read on the internet. I think the average kid in grade 5 could have constructed a more accurate financial analysis 

[sclarda]

CJInvestor wrote Yep  I just read a yahoo article that the Div is only 13 percent of profits after tax which makes it super safe. Like other posters said if anything they will trip new projects before cutting the dividend. Unless oil goes to 60 and stays there. Then maybe a trimming of a cent. So we are good!  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

[odinburnz]

Great post Sclarda.... Nice to read facts for a change!

[JohnnyDoe]

  Sclarda, could I ask that you review some of the company decks, specifically where they define terminology, and check their definitions against your own use of terminology.  Simply put, you use company defined terminology incorrectly and doing so results in your messages being unclear and misleading.  I think your analysis is ok it just gets rather confusing to sift through the

[Quintessential1]

So we are just speculating on the global price of oil then? Right now it is being forced artificially low with SPR releases that not only end soon but have to be replaced. EU sanctions against Russian oil start December 5th Russia will only be supplying global pariahs for the immediate future. A recession could reduce demand but historically does not. Global demand is increasing, global

[yureja42]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[yureja28]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy