Cardinal Energy Ltd (Alberta) T.CJ

Dividend Safety

[Sirlostalot]

Do remember seeing a CJ presentation slide (since removed) that indicated a 5 cent dividend was safe down to 55wti , realize it is now 6 cents but at the time no ncib had taken place,  debt was still north of 100 million and cnd $ was higher , on the other side capex has increased, inflation has increased etc ,still think CJ would be extremely hesitant to cut dividend .. hopefully just a blip , $15 decline in oil in a week doesn't seem to be supported by fundamentals , have to think that a lot of production that was profitable at 80 will be stopped in the 60s.

[sclarda]

At the current oil price of aprox. $68 CJ should have Cashflow of aprox.  $ 185 million per year.  The 6 cent dividend costs the company aprox. $112 million per year. That would leave aprox.  $73 million per year for Capex which is currently budgeted at $120 million for this year.  If oil prices remain around these levels this year CJ would have to cut Capex nearly in half to

[pkrash]

The drop in WTI has nothing to do with fundamentals as another draw on inventories showed. Demand will also be increasing more now with driving season starting and China opening ramp up. Capex can easily be adjusted if necessary...and it will if oil prices drop. These guys aren't about to pump more just to lose money. CJ is ahead on ARO which can also be scaled back if needed (can be cut by

[sclarda]

Heres another genius. Lets borrow money to pay the  ''Healthy'' dividend.  If you have to borrow money cut Capex while burning up 22 000 barrels per day of oil your ''Healthy'' dividend isnt very healthy.  As for oil prices we have been hearing the same b.s. for the last 10 years.Fundementals always say oili prices are going higher.  Chinas

[pkrash]

Guess I'm just going to have to keep being a dumbass collecting that divi every month. Hey look at that....divi confirmed again today! You should call the company and tell them to stop. BTW....I can add just fine as I see 110K shares of divi added to my account yesterday. Also added a few thousand more shares yesterday along with Mr.Brussa. It can be fun to add....

[egee]

The only thing better than divys, is mooorrre divys. cant wait until April 15. May 15 June 15 etc etc

[forecast123]

Q4 report did hint the word "special dividend"....

[Sudirman2]

All fun until someone loses an ey or Divy is cut or elimianted

[Sudirman2]

All fun until someone loses an ey or Divy is cut or elimianted

[w8asec]

What you've dished out is Medicine that no-one wants to here, even though, sadly, you are correct. Everyone here wants high dividends and a soaring share price...not reality. A dividend cut to a 4% yeild would have the share price soar to way more than the dividend cut.... we would realizes probably 3 times more return on our investment... But this is the math that no-one wants to hear or

[JohnnyDoe]

See the problem is  sclarda loses respect when he incorrectly uses terminology He's consistently misused terminology that the company defines in their releases. And now, with this series of posts, he's spewing out that the company needs 80 wti to "break even"  That's hogwash. Personally I think I'd be happier with 4 cents a month dividend and special dividends

[caretired1]

Yah, but you're not Murray Edwards - its what he wants

[Central1951]

Not necessarily. When Vermillion eliminated their dividend a couple of years ago, people ran for the exits and the share price tanked

[Sirlostalot]

Hello, not saying you are wrong but just wondering what the catalyst would be to supercharge the share price after a dividend cut ? , CJs strengths seem to be a high dividend and management consideration for shareholders , the stock isn't dirt cheap and the company doesn't have huge clearwater plays etc , if they were to cut down to 4 cents and provide a 6/7 % yield I would be looking at

[egee]

Murray edwards is astute , his track record is not bad his respect to shareholders, seems a little bit "better" for lack of a different word than let's say Brian over @ TVE. But both entities are good for the record

[riski]

I think these are some astute insights into the landscape for Cardinal. The company is owned almost entirely by like-minded retail investors who are after the large yield. If that was cut in half (which may be prudent), the wave of selling would take the share price much lower than here. I don't want to venture a guess, but it would be more than a couple dollars.  Compared to peers, CJ

[masfortuna]

Hello Riski, I see you are here as well. The company will not touch the divy unless we go into a protracted bear market for energy. By that, I mean 1year+.  Companies do not touch divies because of a 1 week drop in the oil markets. I would think that IF at this time next year, oil is below $60 a barrel, then they may consider cutting.

[riski]

Yes exactly, and the drip would have to be more than $60s. CJ can get by paying their dividend and CAPEX at $70, so a prolonged range bound $60ish price wouldn't make them cut, they could whether that with a small amount of debt and did just that in 2014 for quite some time before oil fell through the floor and they cut it in half and then eliminated when things got really ugly. 

[riski]

Drip should be dip and whether should be weather.  I would like to blame autocorrect on my phone which is likely for drip but I think I may have just flat out use the wrong spelling for weather.  sheesh   

[sclarda]

At $67 oil there is nothing that will ''Supercharge'' the shareprice.  When the Sharerprice was at over $9 last year oil was in the $100 range and CJ was bringing in huge Free Cashflow  with no dividend to pay which they then  used to knock down debt.  Now at  $67 oil with a large dividend and capex they are loosing aprox. $4 million per month. If oil

[pkrash]

Try and stick to posting facts instead of lies. CJ traded over $9 last September when oil was in the $85-$90 range. They were already paying a dividend. Shareholders can't complain here...they are returning cashflow to you. Of course if oil goes lower for any length of time they will reduce the dividend. I already explained how there is more room before that happens of they want to keep the

[Moremoney4u]

DIVIDEND STILL SAFE. OIL is down NOW, BUT as the economies  improve, I.E  CHINA, we will see upward oil prices. THE world still VERY MUCH relies on oil. OPEC, WILL not allow prices to SHRINK. THIS cycle will have its ups and downs, minor blimp,   CJ  STILL HAS  ALL THE INGREDIENTS TO MOVE INTO THE 10.00 $$$$$   RANGE, and it will. THE dividend is STILL

[sclarda]

Okay there Carl No Mo Money Icahn the guy that took a massive Cornholing in the Covid oil meltdown we sure need more advice from a bumpkin like you. 

[egee]

The fomenting on divys is becoming exhausting  we will survive