RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:sold today but will likely be backJayBanks wrote: So your saying that the company paying $9.686 million per month is rather unsafe compared to the previous $8.161 million (which both total $116.232 mil and $97.932 mil on a full year basis) on the $270 adjusted cash flow (or free cash flow) projected at $80/barrel oil that was guided... (6 cents = 43% payout ratio and 5 cents = 36%)?
Over the course of the year we have been running lower than the $80/barrel guided but not that much below (75ish and currently catching up), I believe capital expenses have been somewhat within guidance but it's known they are ahead of guidances because they were front loaded and should finish pretty close to guidance, maybe a little higher for inflation reasons...
Longview, the 6 cents is pretty safe in my eyes. You and others are spitting hairs and being fear full over a $18.3 million difference on $230-270 million.
No, i didn't say the 06 cents a month is rather unsafe. It's safe at 70 based on my interactions with IR. It's not safe below 70. We've had stretches this year where wti was below 70. Those stretches had the stock down at 6.25. Had oil in the lower 60s hung on for a month or two they were likely looking at a dividend cut. Then what? 6 cents is 72 cents a year. That's great. If the stock drops a buck, or more, your 72 cents isn't looking great is it?
It's yielding 9.74 right now. Some analysts look at yields that high and consider them unsafe wirhout even doing their homework.
I'd rather they kept at 5. Used the extra cash for buybacks, or paid debt.
I think oil is setting up for a nice run in the 80s. So we should be good for a while. But i do think the yield makes some buyers nervous.