Cardinal Energy Ltd (Alberta) T.CJ

API Inventory:

[spurwing2]

U.S. API Weekly Crude Stock

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Latest Release

Jul 23, 2024

Actual

-3.900M

Forecast

0.700M

Previous

-4.440M

[Quintessential1]

Oddly enough the EIA report appears to concur and is very close to the API's actual numbers. "U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 436.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline

[VeritasVern]

Quinte, did you say "Should be slighlty bullish for oil with all the other bs headwinds"? Interesting indeed - looks like you are starting to see that they are trying desperately to keep oil below $80. The question is who is intentionally manipulating the markets?

[Quintessential1]

I did say that VV but I meant bs as I don't get the reasoning behind the headwinds entirely.  1.  The fear of the Chinese economy slowing.  I get that this can affect demand but it doesn't appear to be affecting NA demand yet based on the API and EIA reports. 2.  The middle east peace agreements.  Not sure how the conflict caused an increase in oil prices and why

[loopsbutterfly]

yeah I sold covered call on it...because of the summer doldrum Dont expect  a big move before September at best gracias     grinnnnn....

[loopsbutterfly]

620 covered calls  strike price $7,00 for expiration August 16 net proceed over $ 9 000,00 ++ gracias    grinnnnnn...

[VeritasVern]

Yes, looks like more China demand news dominating the direction of oil, and we have seen this in recent past so nothing new here. Demand in China is still rising just perhaps not as robust as thought and from what I seen GDP is about +5% which is lower than their target of about 7-8% but still increasing. So speculation, or rather the traders are driving direction, overriding fundamentals, while

[Quintessential1]

"Kamaltoe in the whitehouse is not good for the oil industry"   Whose?  The USA's oil industry or Canada's? Drill bably drill in the USA will not be good for Canadian oil just like it wasn't last time. Check CJ's stock price Jan 2017 - Jan 2021  It wasn't all because of covid. Sure the Saudi's may want Republican's back in the White

[VeritasVern]

I think it was quite easy to understand that Kamtoe will indirectly try to reduce oil production through over regulation, restrictions and possibly other measures like net zero and emission caps etc. Most oil execs have publicly voiced their dispeasure with with the Biden admin already but it appears that Kamma will double down on policies that are detrimental to the oil sector. So the most likely

[Quintessential1]

I didn't say the Saudi's wanted Republicans in the White House you did.  I said they may want them in but I think it was more the Russian side of OPEC+ for obvious reasons. Sure They could just give the Russian's back the Ukraine by not funding them. Then the rest of the old Soviet Block...then Poland...I've read this story before somewhere. Higher oil prices are good for

[JohnnyDoe]

CJ will survive prolonged sub 60. The existing dividend won't. It'll get slashed big time at mid 50 oil and that will cause a tank in the SP. 

[Tradestay]

This is why SAGD is happening to lower cost of future production, they are lucky oil price is high why the transition is taking place. Do you think their largest shateholder is not preparing for lower price and still get hid dividend. 

[Quintessential1]

SAGD will definately help lower production costs when it comes online but I don't think it can overcome $60 WTI pricing.  After all, not all of the production is SAGD and anything beyond Redfield is not slated to come online until post 2026 at the earliest. Pray for Kamaltoe and greater than $75 WTI.  LOL GLTY and all

[VeritasVern]

Russia is having a difficult time winning against a country that is 1/4 the size two and a half years into the war and you think they have ambitions to take over Poland...which is a NATO member? Russian men are sent to the front to fight which is reducing the labour pool and as a consequence inflation is somewhere around 9%. I would disagree with you on your thoughts on Russian ambitions as they

[Quintessential1]

The Russians are having a hard time defeating the Ukraine because of NATO (Yeah they're not a member of NATO but it is all of the NATO countires that are supplying arms) Trump doesn't like NATO has stated it and doesn't want to support them now never mind in a war.  If the ukraine falls they all fall...think of them as the Crimea 10 years ago.  They won't stop. You don

[VeritasVern]

Sure Quinte, let us recall two things Trump did while in office that disproves the simple thought about the big boogie man in Russia and any influence you think he has on anyone. Firstly if you recall Trump was able to halt the certification of the NordStreem 2 pipeline (oddly Biden when elected allowed it but later bombed it). Secondly, Trump while President, spoke at a NATO meeting and said the

[Quintessential1]

"Russia cannot afford a expanded regional war as stated before and even if they could the notion that Trump would sit back and watch them take over country after country is - laughable." Okay just one country (Ha Ha) then.  The largest one that used to be refered to as the bread basket of the soviet union.  Probably wouldn't help Russia's GDP though and when the

[VeritasVern]

What is the most likely scenario is a negotiated deal where the Russians would keep parts of Eastern Ukraine not all of it but who knows what will actually be the case. Beside who wants to take over all of Ukraine when they are one of the most corrupt countries in the world, that is going to need aid that appears to be somewhere near indefinitely.  So what you are saying is that, assuming a

[Quintessential1]

Yeah VV your personal feelings about the Ukraine and what you think should happen there is not necessarily the most likely scenario and just because you want it or suggest it does not mean that will happen or that it is in fact,  most likely. Ok so US producers won't shoot themselves in the head? Why did they do it last time? They over produced, exported all they could turned the USA

[VeritasVern]

Not that the war is critical for this stock discussion, but the fact Russia is a very large player in the oil space it came up. At any rate one of the factual results is that due to oil and financial sanctions, Russia has just pivoted from supplying the West with oil to the East, making energy more expensive for the West while benefitting the East with cheaper oil. You are right, I don't know

[Quintessential1]

Like I said, "your idea" of the most likey scenerio is "your idea" and not based in fact. Just like Russia will just annex Crimea and then leave well enough alone.  Not. Just about every former soviet country feels threatened by Russia with the exception of those that have already capitulated like Belarus.  Thats why they support Ukraine and ecourage NATO to help

[VeritasVern]

Sure Qunite, I'd say my likely scenario has a much much greater possibility than the usual standard lines that you suggested.  I've said some factual things that has been shared by the Russians, media and experts in Russian affairs. Such as Russia will never give Crimea back to Ukraine, that is off the table, mostly because of defensive strategic needs as their nuclear fleet is there

[Smokey1958]

Can't disagree more, Veritas! In spite of the issues the price of oil is circumspect at best. OIL is going nowhere regardless of the US election, EVs etc. Even with the longterm issues (impact) of Russia and Israel, the "Arab" interest can't be understated.  This notion that oil is somehow going to suddenly disappear just isn't going to happen. For that reason alone

[Quintessential1]

Of course you feel like your scenerio is more likely it is your point of view.  But that's all it is. NATO has never been aggresive to Russia.  The west saved Russia after the fall of the USSR. If Russia feels threatened it is because they think that is what they would do themselves. Anyway I am glad we are done with this subject and could agree that Kamala is the best way