TSX:CJT - Post Discussion
Post by
retiredcf on Mar 30, 2022 11:17am
RBC Report
Their upside scenario target is $334.00. GLTA
Outperform
TSX: CJT; CAD 163.49
Price Target CAD 302.00 ↓ 311.00
Backstop contract alleviates capacity utilization risk; focus now turns to upside
Our view: When CJT announced its Q4 results 3 weeks ago, mgmt disclosed a significant capex spend but at the time was not in a position to disclose the contract that prompted it. That contract has now been signed: a 5+2yr deal with DHL (incl. warrants that ensure $2.3B in minimum revenue). We had already assumed utilization from this capacity; but we see lower risk now with the deal in place and clear room for additional growth upside. Based on our 5-year valuation framework, we see implied upside of >60% at current prices. CJT remains our top name in Transportation.
Key points:
DHL deal. CJT announced a strategic agreement with DHL (5-yr term + 2 yr renewal option). DHL will also receive warrants to acquire up to 9.5% of CJT’s outstanding shares ($158.92 strike) over a period of seven years, with vesting tied to the delivery by DHL of $2.3B in revenue during the term.
Bulk of new capacity now accounted for—with some left over for additional growth. When the company reported its Q4, it announced a significant capex spend, but at the time was not in a position to disclose this contract. Lacking a contract to back up the capex, the shares dropped ~15% on the day. Now with the deal signed, the motivation behind the capex spend becomes clear, as 13 of the company's 19 aircraft are now spoken for. This leaves two 767's and four 777's that the company still has available for additional growth and diversification above and beyond the DHL deal, in addition to improved asset utilization that can be deployed for further growth on its existing fleet.
Estimates. We had already factored in successful deployment of new capacity, so for now we are leaving our estimates unchanged (though we still believe we were well above the Street on our 2022-25 numbers, so likely consensus goes up). Clear on the call however was that there is amply room for additional capacity utilization, which we expect to factor in over time. The key point here is that before this deal, all of the new capacity was in question; now the majority of it has been taken, with room for additional growth that is not in our numbers.
Valuing CJT. We believe the most appropriate way to value CJT is off 2026 estimates, which is the first year following the year the last plane is delivered. We forecast $553MM in EBITDA in 2026, with a 50 / 50 split domestic / non-domestic. Domestic we comp at a premium to Rail (due to 95% market share and double-digit volume) or 17.5x vs Rail at 14.5x. We value non-domestic business at 11x, which is above with our trucking peer (TFII), and combined results in a blended 14x multiple and target price of $302 (down from $311 due to warrants). With a balance sheet that is debt free by 2026E and FCF at $20/share (11% FCF yield), CJT is and remains our single best idea in our coverage universe.
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