Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce T.CM

RE:Federal Reserve reacts to negative commodities feedback loop

[roniejames]

quebecnord wrote: The Federal Reserve has reduced the expectations of an increase in interest rates in 2015 due to the slow down in the world economy, particularly in emerging nations that rely on commodities for job growth and government revenues. Emerging nations were quickly becoming submerging nations. Brazil is the poster child of emerging nations under severe duress. At the beginning of 2014 the $US was trading at $1.06 Real and rose to $4.24 just one month ago. Brazil is the 7th largest economy in the world ! The Brazilian central bank has raised interest rates to 14% to stem import price inflation. Do you think Brazilians are buying US imports that have quadrupled in price over the last 2 years and need to be financed at 14% ? An Apple Iphone costs one months of the average Brazilian wage. Market traders that expected the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and reduce the supply of $US around the world have under-estimated the global impact of this policy change. As the world's reserve currency, the Federal Reserve is back tracking on it's tightening bias to mitigate the reduction in $US supply for emerging nations. The Federal Reserve has mentioned "higher rates" over 200 times but we can expect this to abate as they examine the impact of their "jaw boning" on world economic growth. Commodities investors who have accumulated assets during the sell off correctly anticipated the Federal Reserve's reaction. Good chess moves.