Commodity DemiseSept 9, 2008
Cramer told viewers of Tuesday’s “Mad Money” TV show that a lack of Chinese demand for steel, coal and fertilizer is killing the commodity complex. He also mentioned the “John McCain factor” is hurting the price of oil and natural gas. McCain is moving up in the polls, so investors are concerned that more drilling will lead to a flood of supply and lower prices. Cramer said oil could trade down to $80 a barrel or $3 a gallon of gas if McCain is elected. Cramer also said that hedge funds are playing a role in the plunging prices of commodities and commodity-based stocks. He explained that hedge funds are being hit by redemptions and are being forced to sell the stocks. Also, none of these stocks pay dividends. Cramer predicted a dire-case scenario for the following stocks: They could trade back to their August of 2005 levels. Vale (RIO) could drop 68%, U.S. Steel (X) 50%, fertilizer stocks like Potash (POT), Mosaic (MOS) and Agrium (AGU) could fall 80% to 90% and a 30% fall for many oil and naturl gas produceers. Cramer said the only thing that could stop this is if the world’s central banks cut interest rates aggressively. “If China doesn’t come back the commodity collapse has the potential to bring down the whole market,” Cramer said.Z
I personally think cramer is a goof but i just wanted to show that the information that i see about where coal is going is split 50/50