RE: CMK-real picture
arc88
Excellent description of GCE WTN experiences.
And that's my point from 'historic perspective of projects like CMK
If not for 2008 spike of coal to $ 350/t they both would go under. within 3-4 y after start-up.
.Like PVM did....digging similar priced coal to CMK coal - PCI + 10% HCC
CMK is in worse position than bankrupt PVM and waaay worse than GCE WTN ,
which hardly are a compelling investment at those valuations,
-- CMK has not only 20-25% lower coal price vs HCC benchmark
--but 20% lower coal price ON TOP of 20% lower prices for ALL coals - in a cheap market =US
-- ON TOP of higher costs FOB.
IT IS THAT SIMPLE .
$ 200/t HCC benchmark becomes $ 100-120 / t AVER T , CMK selling price.
( with thermal portion and with US inland sales portion)
GCE has $ 900m cap -
a current money machine and FINANCED $ 240 m capex
for growth to 3.5 mt in same timeframe ,CMK dreams its 3 mt.
NO DILUTION
CMK $ 800m cap ( with dudes calling for + 1 b cap LOOOL)
INEVITABLE DILUTION will bring it above $ 1 b anyway ( if PPS won't tank big )
And what is CMK vs GCE?
--a money losing machine
-- no sign of $ 240 m needed to do the 3 m t
-- set up for COMPLETE FAILURE ( see above) and if will survive on couple pennies EPS
-- not worth even 1/4 the valuation now .
--NO MONEY RIGHT NOW TO DO ANYTHING ..they have to borrow NOW
to pay for cost to produce that puny,UNPROFITABLE 20k /month and capex to make that port yard USABLE
-- HIGHEST COST IN INDUSTRY TO PRODUCE LOWEST QUALITY/ price MET FOB
geeeesus.
GCE : will be 3.5 mt PROFITABLE producer
CMK wanna be 3 mt UNPROFITABLE PRODUCER.
Give me $ 1 B because I , wannabe a POPE
Geeesus.
Even if CMK will manage to attract ANY investment needed for capex and to cover oper loses
the CMK Chart will be ( just started ) 2 Y of grinding down slope to $ 1.- 1.5
waiting for a miracle to save their DOOMED FROM START Business.
t
ake over of Elk >??? ...yes -- 2014 at 50 c CMK
Only PERMANENT- multi Y , HCC benchmark of $ 400/t can save their sorry butt
Even HCC 1mt producers selling at 70% higher price than CMK will,
do not make money.;
WTN has 1 mt UK mine losing / hardly getting even
No shipping 25,000km , no railing 2,400 km ,no trucking 10,000km-20,000 km,/day
no loading/ unloading to 4 different piles of coal in between
https://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=29240165&l=0&r=0&s=CMK&t=LIST
higher selling price
Yet , not making money.
PRC, producing 1mt HCC and CONCRETE STEPS TAKEN ( not a paper "PLANS")
to get them to 3mt ,with closest porrt to Asia ,survives only because their owner
Anglo is subsidizing them FOR 6 Y NOW.
- For sale @ $ 450 m = $ 2.5 CMK share now , $ 2 /sh after CMK dilution.
Y
ES, VIRGINIA, A PRODUCER OF 70% higher priced HCC about to do 3mt
and break to profitability ,cost $ 2 CMK diluted share.
1/2 the CMK BS
And dudes want to price that dog at $ 1 B !!!!
geeeeesus.
BTW. reaching 1 or 3 mt capacity doesn't mean they will sell 1 mt or 3 mt .
NONE of them produces at 100% capacity.
70- 80% is the norm.
THIS IS A 7 -th variabe / est. income deduction ,we must to add to my model
https://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=29247462&l=0&r=0&s=CMK&t=LIST
This stock is a KUKUs -NEST for hallucinating , delusional patients.
At the end of day ,when they will finish running around in a back yard of a mental hospital
the nurse will hose them down with high pressured cold water.
================
THE UPDATED CMK PRICING / EARNINGS MODEL
7 VARIABLES AFFECTING CMK SALE PRICE:
1. AU benchmark met price -is ,well ,for AU miners..
Canadian miners with not much longer distance from west coast to Asia enjoy close to AU benchmark prices
US miners benchmark ,with 3 x longer distance to China from east coast and 2.5 x from south coast have
25% lower seaborne prices than AU
2. US inland sales are like 40% lower than AU benchmark
3. CMK coal is lowest quality met / highest quality thermal= price around PCI =
20-25% lower than top HCC AU benchmark
4.AVERAGE per 1 t sales depends also on proportion of thermal coal in overall volume.GCE has 16% thermal
It lowers their aver / t price. by 9%.
CMK at 25-30% thermal = 15% AVER /T price
5.Small miners do not have the bargaining power of BHP,TEC and sell top HCC at
up to 10% lower price
Eg. TEC Q4/10 sold at $ 225/t , GCE exact quality top HCC at $ 191 ( though lowered by carryover vol)
6..Carryover volumes from previous Q at previous Q pricing affect up or down current Q aver sale price.
7. Capacity utilization and inventory levels (usually 70-80% ) means
3 mt "run rate" = 2.3 m t sales .
.
regardless of your sins of blind greed ,your soul can be delivered from despair through the mercy of God,
Geeeeesus