RE: CMK-real picture
In previous post some learned (most here NEVER LEARN)
a
new coal co , historically ,has less than 50% odds to survive.
Taking into account CMK specific model of future cost/ profit structure ,
CMK has close to ZERO odds to survive.
https://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=29262650&l=0&r=0&s=CMK&t=LIST
But we are bunch of BASELESS OPTIMISTS ..aren't we.?
So, let's take a look at those cos which survived
How MANY YEARS their stock stays BELOW INITIAL SPECULATION TOP
and how many %% points below
1. In below 5 examples only WTN managed to get above initial speculation top,
6 Y LATER.
Thanks to 40% takeover premium and 40% pre - takeover rumors run.
Without that, WTN would only return to initial speculation top after 6 years of staying below it.
And only because of WTN chinese combinations /mergers ,byzantIne financial machinations ,
and not because of core business.
2. GCE after 6 Y past the pre- production speculation top stays 40% below it ,
Only due to 40% latest ( unwinding now ) run in symphaty to WTN takeover.
Without that GCE would stay 50-60% below the top.
3. JRCC after 5n Y past the pre- production speculation top stays 60% below it ,
4.PCX after 5n Y past the pre- production speculation top stays 35% below it ,
5 ICO after 5n Y past the pre- production speculation top stays 23% below it ,
ICO's pre production speculation equivalent was the pre-IPO pump
For almost 3 y after IPO stock tanking from $12 to $ 4.
Recovered briefly ( like JRCC) to the top IN 2008 and today -5 Y LATER is 23% below it.
Is CMK better story than GCE WTN or the other 3 US cos were back in 2005?
I doubt it.
Yet, CMK run 1000%..More than all of them ( except WTN)
IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT CMK WILL NOT BANKRUPT AND WILL BE AROUND 6 YEARS FROM NOW
THE STOCK WILL STAY BELOW $ 5 TOP FOR THAT 6 YEARS. AND BEYOND.
In the 1 in a million chance ,CMK will be taken over like WTN ,6 y later
It will stay below $ 5 for that 6 years. till TO.
No matter what happens to CMK - the company ,
the CMK- stock is in a LOSE- LOSE situation.
You will NEVER see CMK $ 5 level again.
( though I would give you 5% odds for double top and then CARRRRAMBA )
NEXT 100% GAINS IN CMK ARE ON SHORT SIDE.
Note ,the HUGE speculative runs are ONLY in canadian cos.
Canadians ,primed by the Vancuver pump and dump machine are obviously more prone to brainwashing .
And I mean INSTITUTIONAL / SYSTEMIC PUMP AND DUMP - not the retail nuts.
US cos didn't run that much initially , yet they stay BELOW that INITIAL TOP SINCE
.= for years = for whole their to date lifespan.
Take PCX
cap $ 2.2 B , 14 mines ,36 mt coal , incl. met 6.9 mt/2010 , 11mt met 2014
3 TIMES MORE MET PROD. THAN CMK 2013,
100 TIMES MORE THERMAL PROD THAN CMK
300KM TO SHORE VS CMK 2400 KM
AND JUST 2.5 TIMES BIGGER CAP ???? geeeeeeesuss
$2 B revenues ( P/S 1.1 ) vs CMK $ 120 M( P/S 6.8)
Yet, LOSING $ 48 M
https://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=CMK.TO&t=my&q=l&l=off&z=l&p=s&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US®ion=US
https://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=GCE.TO&t=my&q=l&l=off&z=l&p=s&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US®ion=US
https://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=PCX&t=5y&q=l&l=off&z=l&p=s&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US®ion=US
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Some poster wrote :
"
With New Elk as the principal asset and being located in the US, there is no sound reason why CMK would not receive the same relative valuation to it's US peers. "
TOTALLY AGREE
TO MATCH US PEERS CMK MUST BE CUT BY 4 to $ 1.1
To justify $ 800m cap , $ 1 b after dilution @ $ 4.5 PPS
CMK must have $ 80 m EARNINGS /2011. = make $ 80/t EARNINGS
and $ 100/T cash profit LOOOOOOL
After dilution $ 120/ t cash profit LOOOOLL
NEVER GONNA HAPPEN
.