RE: RE: conference call
Tuesd. Shanghai drops 2.2%
Nikkei 10% by 1 PM local and counting vs 6% yestarday geeeesus .
AUSTRALIA - 2.4%
===================
2 CHARTS ANALYSING PAST SECULAR
BEAR MARKETS: WHEN IT WILL END ?
https://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/3-4-11-Secular-Cycles-1.gif
https://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/3-4-11-Secular-Cycles-5a.gif
SHORTEST 165 MONTHS = DEC 2013
AVERAGE 191 MONTHS = FEB 2016
LONGEST 237 MONTHS = DEC 2019
By that time dudes will grow up ....and grow poor.
340 banks failed so far
https://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/3-11-11-Bank-Failures-2.gif
================
-70 percent chance of a level 7 quake in the next three days, according to Japanese television station NHK.
Monster aftershock could strike within days
Adam Morton
March 14, 2011
Don Blackman of the US Geographical Survey says following an earthquake of magnitude 9, there could easily be one or more severe quakes following.
see video
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/monster-aftershock-could-strike-within-days-20110313-1bt2p.html
NORTH-EASTERN Japan can expect another monster earthquake large enough to trigger a tsunami within days, the head of the Australian Seismological Centre says.
The director, Kevin McCue, said there had been more than 100 smaller quakes since Friday, but a larger aftershock was likely.
''Normally they happen within days,'' he said. ''The rule of thumb is that you would expect the main aftershock to be
one magnitude smaller than the main shock, so you would be expecting a 7.9.
'
'That's a monster again in its own right that is capable of producing a tsunami and more damage.
A temblor measuring 6.1 shook buildings across Tokyo at 4:12 p.m. yesterday. There have been 32 aftershocks with a magnitude of 6 or greater since the main quake struck on March 11,
=============
Mar 14, 2011 6:33 PM ET
J
apan Appeals for Aid in Fight to Prevent Nuclear Meltdown
The U.S. has dispatched two nuclear technicians to Japan.........geeesus.. BOTH OF THEM?
Mar 14, 2011 8:44 PM ET
Tokyo Electric Power Co. confirmed a
third explosion today
The blast occurred around 6:14 a.m. local time near a suppression chamber, which controls pressure in the reactor core,
Blast at its number-three reactor shook the facility and sent plumes of smoke billowing into the sky
The nuclear plant suffered a second explosion on Monday (second reactor) in addition to falling water levels in another (third) of its reactors
The level of radiation at the plant rose above the legal limit after the latest explosion, Kyodo News reported.
Operator Tokyo Electric had earlier said it couldn’t rule out that
fuel rods
are melting at the No. 2 reactor after they became exposed for a second time by a drop in water levels.
WHERE THAT CONTAMINATED WATER GOES?
Plus rain and snow tomorrow will bring that radiation in the air home.
The containment chamber of the No 2 reactor at Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s
Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant may be damaged after today’s blast
and radiation leakage is possible,
Treasuries Jump in ‘Violent’ Rally as Kan Warns of Further Radiation Leaks
“This isn’t a flight to quality. It’s a flight from disaster.
The moves tend to be quite violent.”
Le Groupe de Secours Catastrophe Francais, a volunteer organization that sends rescue teams
into disaster areas, will not immediately be sending rescuers to Japan,
in part because of the danger of exposure to radioactive contamination,
the group said in an e-mailed statement
France's Institute of Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety said
"very large" amounts of radioactivity were "produced simultaneously
with the explosion" at Fukushima Saturday.
USS Regan ,conducting rescue from sea , dedected radiation on it's helicopters and pilots
The Navy says it moved several U.S. ships away from a troubled Japanese nuclear plant.
Fifteen U.S. reactors use a similar design to the
General Electric Co. unit
at Tokyo Electric Power Co’s. Fukushima Daiichi No. 1,
The 40-year-old nuclear reactor facing a possible meltdown at the troubled Fukushima Daiichi
power plant was originally scheduled to go out of commission in February
but had its operating license extended another 10 years
=============
About 1.3 million households were without power, and 1.4 million had no running water, according to a government report.
More than 310,000 people are in emergency shelters and heating systems are short of fuel,
100,000 packages of instant noodles were en route to feed them.
3 people to 1 package of noodle..in 3 days ..geeesus
ambulances and Tokyo Electric vehicles were queuing up for petrol at a gasoline station.
Drivers are allowed to buy 10 liters (2.6 gallons) at gasoline stands that have fuel,
Only 10 percent of the trains on the important east-west train line through Tokyo were running, Japanese TV reported.
Train service to Tokyo's Narita airport was also suspended
there was a shortage of body bags and coffins.
The wall of water reached as far as 20 kilometers inland, according to NHK.
-20,820 buildings have been fully or partially damaged, according to Kyodo News.
Lotsa steel scrap- not much more iron ore needed.
# 11,400 base stations of major cellphone operators not operating, according to Kyodo News.
# -879,500 subscribed phone lines remain out of service, according to Kyodo News.
# -5,000 houses in Iwate Prefecture alone submerged in water, according to Kyodo News.
rolling blackouts will last through the end of April.= no pick up in coal demand for 1 month
US TAXPAYERS PAYING FOR JAP. DAMAGES.
AIG (NYSE: AIG) may not be so lucky. The company’s Chartis division
insures 8% of the property and casualty market in Japan.
The impending loss payouts, which will undoubtedly be a large number,
are the last thing shareholders needed after the insurer relied on
$180 billion in government loans just to stay afloat a little over two years ago
===============
Saudi invaded Bahrain in an unprecedented armed intervention likely to provoke a new crisis in the Gulf.
The Wahhabi Saudi regime acting as guardian for Bahrain's Sunni monarchy wants
to maintain the status quo both at home and in Bahrain
It will not tolerate the country next door talking about a constitutional monarchy.
In the minds of the Saudi rulers,
real democracy in Bahrain must be stopped at all costs.
Bahrain police had already
begun firing rubber bullets at protesters, but protesters fear live ammunition could be next.
Shia Muslims account for 70 per cent of Bahrain's population vs .30% the ruling Sunnis,
US urges restraint by Gulf nations
Oil rose in New York as Saudi Arabian troops moved into Bahrain
Iran now has justification for making a military countermove to support Bahraini Shi’a.
Second, any state—such as Israel—that might want to support Gaddafi now
has the perfect precedent to “justify” such behavior
The result is likely to be a surge in activity by Iran, Israel, and al Qua’ida,
as all three rush to exploit new opportunities and to defend their interests.
Saudi military intervention in Bahrain
is not a move for stability.
It is a move for reaction and radicalization..
==============
No flight zone in Lybia means ANOTHER WAR.
Enforcing a no-fly zone in Libya would be a radical act of war.
It would require the U.S. not only to shoot down Libyan military aircraft
but also to bomb Libya in order to destroy anti-aircraft defenses.
Under any legal theory, bombing a foreign government's territory
and blasting its air force out of the sky is war.
https://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/2011/03/08/lind_libya_no_fly
Once the U.S. has committed itself to using limited military force to depose a foreign regime
, the pressure to "stay the course" becomes irresistible...see Iraq ,Afganistan.
The continuing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have stretched U.S. military manpower to the limits.
The U.S. has paid for these wars by borrowing rather than taxation.
The long-term costs of these conflicts, including medical care for maimed American soldiers, will run into the trillions, according to the economists Joseph Stiglitz and Linda Bilmes
===============
LNG
. Any potential switch away from nuclear power is likely to favor gas-fired generation,
the most practical low carbon-emission alternative," Arnold Musiker from
Fitch Ratings said in a report issued late Sunday.
"
Australia is well-positioned to meet additional medium-term gas demand," Musiker added
Besides Australia, South Korea and Russia have already taken steps
to divert LNG cargoes to Japan, while Qatar could also help to meet Japan's additional demand.
Demand for the fuel to produce electricity in Japan may increase by about 8.6 percent, analysts with Barclays Capital said
Natural gas for April delivery gained 2.5 cents to settle at $3.914 per million British thermal units
on the New York Mercantile Exchange
.N. Gas has dropped 11 percent this year.
About 1.7 percent of U.S. gas supply comes from LNG shipments
Absolutely you are going to see a diversion of cargoes from the U.S..”
Some LNG cargoes originally sent to U.S. import terminals were stored and then shipped back overseas because of growing shale-gas production in the U.S.
The U.S. re-exported at least 12 shipments in 2010 and four in January 2011
to countries including U.K., Spain, India and South Korea,
according to the Energy Department.
U.S. shale reserves, hold enough gas to meet 34 years of demand at current consumption levels,
Rising LNG demand from Japan may also reduce cargoes to the U.K
. Societe Generale, France’s second-largest bank, raised its average price forecast
for U.K. gas this year by 8.9 percent to 49 pence a therm.
The forecast for 2012 increased 11 percent to 50 pence a therm.
NOT MUCH
Japan is the biggest user of LNG, accounting for 35 percent of global trade in 2009,
BP Plc statistics show.
J
apanese demand for gas to produce power may increase by 5 billion cubic meters in 2011
Vs. 70 million mt imports in 2010 = 7% imports increase to replace lost nukes
Regan said. "I expect LNG demand to increase by 16-18% this year
even without factoring in Japan's recent earthquake
LNG LOOKS LIKE THE ANSWER FOR WORLD'S ENERGY (and environ) PROBLEMS WITH RISING CHEAP PRICE BY JUST 15% AND MORE SUPPLY
WE WILL NEED FOR YEARS.
.