RE: Cline Mining $1.5 target
July 5 TD report says 1 cont.miner working LOOOOL
According to first Tech Rep by 3 Q 2011 there supposed to be 3 sections= 6 miners working
geeesus 1/6 -th
By Q3 they supposed to have installed 1.5 mt capacity
Instead ,they have 250kt capacity and producing
RAW= ROM = UNWASHED =HALF-PRODUCT,
at fraction of the 250kt installed capacity
geeeesus ---1/25 ??
How they will do the 300kt /2011? ..it's H2 already and no 300kt capacity ,
yet alone 300kt prod. .. HALLLO
Is the wash plant working at all.?
That leads me to another big REDUX-FACTOR ,I forgot to include
in my previous post about $1.5 target here
https://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?s=CMK&t=LIST&m=29953456&l=0&pd=0&r=0&msg=3
6 BIG CLINE MINING REDUX -FACTORS
1. 20% lower price for coal quality
2 .20% lower AVER sale price/t due to thermal coal portion in overall prod.
3. As much as $ 20 /t higher logistic /handling /transporting cost( no rail ,no port storage handling equip,distance to port )
4. As much as $10-15 /t lower price due to distance to Asia disadvantage vs AU cos.
5. As much as $ 10 /t contractor scalp
6. As much as $10-15 /t higher cost due to HIGH ROM- to clean coal ratio.
# 1 was addressed by TD and Comark and in a manipulating way by Jenings ' 2 reports.
TD 2012 benchmark = $ 230/t,
CMK sales price = $175/t =lower than my $ 180/t
And going sharply lower in next years to $ 120/t CMK sales ..geeesus
That means bankruptcy by 2014, even if they will manage to get the rail spur
At $ 120/t CMK sales TD goes in worst case to $ 130/t oper cost.= $ 140 total cost
The tradeoff of reducing cost by $ 20 /t is throwing at it $ 200m ADDITIONAL capex for longwall.
Geesus = $ 430m total capex vs an initial LIE of $60m .!!!
Finally getting close ( not quite though) to average capex in industry.
$ 200m est for 3mt more is still suspiciously low.
Compare GCE $ 240m cost of increasing prod by what ? 1.5 - 2mt?
(likely underestimated too)
# 2WAS NOT ADDRESSED / CONVENIENTLY OMITTED BY ALL BROKERS.
THEY ALL DO IN THIS POINT A TARD-MATH ,ASSUMING 100% MET.
WELL, big NEGATIVE surprise is awaiting here.
# 3 WAS ADDRESSED by TD = $
40 /t transport = just $ 10-15 more than average other miners.Will be higher than that.
# 4 WAS NOT ADDRESSED / CONVENIENTLY OMITTED BY ALL BROKERS
Or included in # 1
#5 WAS NOT ADDRESSED / CONVENIENTLY OMITTED BY ALL BROKERS
Or included in # 1
#6 was addressed by TD and Comark -not sure about dude Jenning-and I won't lose time by re-reading BS
This dude is just manipulating numbers / assumptions in such way ,
that even in face of 3 times lower production he has to arrive at ( ordered by boss?)
pre - conceived arbitrarily target of $ 6.
He is just 1 notch higher than GOD.
Comark report is useless /outdated in face of MAJOR FUNDAMENTAL NEW FACTS: 31m sh dilution , 3 times lower production and 1- 1.5 Y delays
There is also plenty of other variables with UNKNOWN ACCUMULATIVE EFFECT
on lower price target .Plenty of permits to get ,studies to do ,.tanking USD= lower EPS in CAD
8% royalty ,taxes etc.
And of course th
e overriding risk inherent in coal price 2012 - 2013 and forward.
IE. this suspected Jansen storage permit of just 1 kt may turn into MAJOR disadvantage
rendering the whole mine project IMPAIRED and much, much less / no economical .
I urged dudes here long time ago : "confirm or reject AT GOV SOURCE ( in face CMK won't tell)
the EXTREMELY BAD STORY about the 1 kt Jansen storage permit.
https://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?s=CMK&t=LIST&m=29837124&l=0&pd=0&r=0
No response from dudes - well , so predictable of dudes here
capable only of discussing pictures of elephant SH and tard-math.
Instead of getting CRUCIAL and I mean CRUCIAL piece of info - lack of which
can cost them their life savings .
geeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesus
In summary
--in face of so many UNKNOWN CRUCIAL VARIABLES capable of turning CMK story upside down
--in face of lack of ANY meaningful data allowing reasonable assessment (mainly cost, capex and sale price)
--impossible task of RISK ASSESSMENT and info-stonewalling / vacum (this alone is bad news)
What one can do when facing ZERO DATA ,?
Really not knowing anything what's going on ? (and how bad /good)
Well, ZERO DATA = ZERO INVESTMENT
Tard -math is no longer good enough.
Leave it to the tard- mathematicians and and the high stake, high risk
adrealine junkies, or the 5c daytraders.
Who so far have proven to be long term losers AND COUNTING.
==================
Back to # 6
Comark just took at face value company report of 65% clean coal.
TD was more cautious and assumed 55%.
GEEESUS ..... MINING 45 % of GARBAGE !!!
They will run out of permitted waste storage space in no time
Limited / not enough in a first place.
The low ash HCC producers have 85% recovery .
That's 30% of mining volume ROM difference vs . CMK.
THIS DIFFERENCE IS HUGE .
I assumed only $ 10-15/t higher cost for that
Colud be higher.
That's the likely reason they are "
mining " LOOOOL for 8 months now
and have trouble to design washing proces in way to reduce the" garbage cost./ loses "
Beware of NR containing just ' we mined " so and so much
.(so far we are getting for 8 monts :" we are mining " LOOOOOOL)
Divide ROM by 1./2 .
=========================
The difference between God's tard - math and analysts or me
is the number of variables ( see 1-6) , details we include in the calculation formula.
But in face of TOTAL DARKNESS , no any REAL HARD DATA -
all attempts are more or less a tard- math.
Analysts and me just looking more 'scientific" bit closer to truth -but still far away
The fact is, no one knows S,. including Ben Kates.
The only sure thing is - IT WILL BE WORSE THAN ANYONE EXPECTED
AS USUAL.
Based on experience with all the other startups who went same route CMK does now.
So, again
NO DATA = NO INVESTMENT .
=========================
Going back to inferior methods of valuation = NAV/PS.
At $ 2.8, CMK trades at FULL 100% NAV/PS according to TD.
WHO in GOD's name ( not this one= ours GOD LOL) trades such
RISKY AND TOTAL DARKNESS, UNCERTAINTY co. at 100% NAV?
50% to NAV is more in line = $ 1.4
Lossan is worth acc.to TD $ 29m = 13 /sh
T
he big DOUBLE mistake TD made .
Assumed
1. $ 1 per t in ground -there is tens of latest transactions buying coal in ground for 33c /t and lower.
2. He assigned $ 1/t value for WHOLE reserve .
75% of it is WORTHLESS = UNRECOVERABLE Economically
Come on .. are you asking me to pay for coal deposit on the Moon ?
So ,that NAV of his is BS.
Divide it by 3-4 .= under $ 1 /sh
.