It's not about Production alone Everybody seems to focus on Cline's production but you need to start with revenue and work backwards. Current benchmark coal orices for hard coking coal are in the $205/tonne range. If Cline were to sell it's coal today we know that the coal would be discounted significantly from benchmark prices due to quality issues and more importantly due to the fact that they are a small and unproven producer. Cline would realize prices that are somewhere in the neighborhood of a 30% discount to benchmark prices which gives you realized prices of somewhere in the neighborhood of $140/tonne give or take. This is also assuming they don't produce much thermal coal.
The question to ask yourself is could these guys generate positive cash flow given that their costs are most likely going to be astronomical as they attempt to ramp up production. I seriously doubt these guys could be cash flow positive in today's coal market. I would have more respect if the management said something along the lines of " we need a benchmark coal price north of $250/tonne(or whatever that figure is) and we will delay production until the coal price is at that level. Below $250/tonne we can't be economical so we are essentially putting the mine on care and maintenance."
The management has communicated zilch about what they really need to make this project work. So no investor in their right mind(except maybe eigen) would give these guys any benefit of the doubt. I don't know why everyone on this board is so obsessive about this stock. there are good quality met coal producers out their like BTU and WLT that have been hammered my the macro issue. Why not invest in these types of company rather than a company like CMK that has huge operational risk?