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This Morning EIA Report

[namsoc]

A few posts back I indicated that I would be looking for some upcoming data from a few oil reports.

I just picked up this mornings EIA report.  There was a bit of good news.  The US Inventories went down, by 3.1 Mbbls, only because they imported less.  As a result, oil was up about 90¢ after the report but fell off in the afternoon. fromits high, but at least up.  Difficult to know if is trying to put in a bottom

What I was looking for was a weekly decrease in US production, instead there was an increase of 11 kb/d.  The good part of the increase is that it nets out to a yearly increase of slightly more than 0.57 Mb/d day.  This is much better than the 1 Mb/d yearly increase that has occurred over the last 3 years which is the source of the mess we are in today.

Using a different and hopefully a better longer period of 4 weeks, Dec 5 to Jan 2, the increase was only 14 kb/d.  Converting that to yearly number comes out to 182 kb/d yearly increase. Interestingly during that period a new high of 9,137 kb/d was reached.  This mornings report showed 9,132 kb/d.  Note that last year over the same 4 wk period, production was up by 70 kb/d, which is a 910 kb/d increase, which is in the ball park of what they increased production over this past year.

Note that these wkly EIA numbers are best estimates based on a number of factors.  It takes about two months to get them right.  Nevertheless there is some sign of hope.  What I don’t know is whether the analysts look at this data like I do.  The initial focus of the narket is on inventories,  Sometime later in they when theings turn around they mention other things that they gleaned from the report.  This morning the inyial reaction was down, surprising for an inventory decline, but it has now turned around.

I think we need to get oil back above $50 as a first step.  Tonight WTI is up 57¢ at this moment.

Namsoc

As an aside, this may be the beginning of a trend

The First Shale Oil Casualty: WBH Energy Files For Bankruptcy
 
WSJ reports:
 
Signs of strain are building in the oil patch, where revenue growth hasn’t kept pace with borrowing. On Sunday, a private company that drills in Texas, WBH Energy LP, and its partners, filed for bankruptcy protection, saying a lender refused to advance more money and citing debt of between $10 million and $50 million. Neither the Austin-based company nor its lawyers responded to requests for comment.