RE:RE:RE:RE:Great poker gameforecast123 wrote: Miran - From Oct 8 to Jan 8, there are 66 trading days.. Even if we say 50% of those who bought shares in these 66 trading days tendered to SU, it will be just 2 M x 50 % x 66= 66 M shares (ie 8% of o/s shares).... My guess is SU will fail miserably in a low % shares about 30%obtained from tendering plus own buying from open market... Good luck with your assumption that SU will have 55 % of shares by Jan 8 2016.
The average trading in the last 90 days 2.43 million on theTSX. I beleive it trades elsewhere so the amount of shares being traded would be higher. I also think that more than 50% of recent buyers are going to tender them, more like 85%, why else would they buy it.
Now that I think about it, I think you need to look back to atleast July, not since the offer was annouced since it was trading below $9.00. We can even count those who traded in January-February when it was trading between $7-$8.
Shares traded since July- about 110 trading days x 2.43 million= 267,000,000 shares traded on the TSX, not counting the other exchanges.
267,300,000 x 85%= 227,205,000 YES votes or 46% of the float.
just thinking out loud, any thoughts?