CS on CPG comments today--neutral with $18 fair valueCrescent Point Energy Corp (CPG.TO) Rating NEUTRAL [V] Price (25-May-17, C$) 12.26 Target price (C$) (from 20.00) 18.00 52-week price range (C$) 23.16 - 12.26 Market cap (C$ m) 6,677.28 Target price is for 12 months. [V] = Stock Considered Volatile (see Disclosure Appendix) Research Analysts Jason Frew 403 476 6022 jason.frew@credit-suisse.com Brian Ho 403 476 6009 brian.ho@credit-suisse.com Neutral, C$18.00 TP CS View: The business strategy remains focused on assets with large oil-inplace and low recovery factors to date, with complementary secondary waterflood development. At US$55 WTI, the company's five year growth plan delivers a 7% production CAGR, maintains the current dividend, and provides modestly declining net debt to cash flow through 2021. With the business moving in the right direction, we believe the market will revisit the stock over time given its solid profile and discounted valuation. Estimate and Target Price Changes: Following a review of our sector post- Q1 results, we increased our 2017/18/19 CFPS estimates by 1/3/5% after incorporating lower gas price forecast and updates from Investor Day. We lower our target price to C$18 from C$20 following Investor Day as we perceive the pace of innovation at CPG to lagging that of the other industry peers and are taking a more cautious view of the company's competitive position. We will revisit our view should waterflood development improve and productivity materialize at a faster pace in plays such as the Uinta. Risks: The risk factors that could cause us to review our target price and rating include: (1) financial performance is dependent on oil and gas prices and the value of the Canadian dollar, all of which are volatile; (2) operating and capital costs could reflect market conditions that are different than currently forecast; (3) the uncertain nature of regulatory requirements, fiscal terms, and weather conditions; (4) availability of capital, and; (5) changes to strategy and management.