RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Top Pick on Market Call Today :>)I think you're overstating the age of CPG's asset base, the netbacks are in good shape. The operating costs went way up this quarter you have to consider that they're bringing wells online (or reactivating) and we haven't had a chance to see the all the barrel potential from that. I'll be watching the FCF but fully expect to see it increase in the coming quarters (provided the price of oil holds).
And, where do you get the Nuttall is talking from $100 oil? You know Ninepoint has done analysis on what this looks like at $80 or $100 but Eric usually avoids talking about anything above $70.
TickerTwit wrote: It seemed to me that @arizonabound was interpreting management comments rather than making his own comment, but he can clarify.
I want CPG to nail down the debt too, and I like your target of $1B before reinstating a substantive dividend. But CPG just increased its long-term debt by 13.4% in 2021Q2 -AND- diluted shareholders by almost 10% in the same quarter.
I'm looking at my CPG trend tables for 2015-2021 now. Revenue for 2021 is tracking to be the worst year of the dataset. Cash flow for 2021 is tracking to be the second worst year (worsted only by 2020). CPG needs to continually acquire fresh assets to combat decline; will they have the sustained free cash flow to support both acquisitions and accelerated debt repayment? We'll see.
So no, I did not find Nuttall's comments convincing. But his comments are based on $100 WTI, and if that comes true then maybe wonderful things happen for CPG shareholders.
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TheBridge wrote: TickerTwit, arizonabound is absolutely correct in suggesting that CPG is a couple of quarters away from considering a change in dividend. They need two or three more quarters of reducing the debt before they should consider touching the dividend. They need to get that debt down to close as possible to or under $1 billion, otherwise the share price is going nowhere.