RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:CRESCENT POINT CPG $20/SHARE = 2022The major and persistent issue is the past history of aquisitions. The market didn't trust they were in a position to do those aquisitions and we're still in the era of paying down the debt. In a way, because we're still here having this discussion, it wasn't as bad as the market feared but CPG badly misread the market. Keybob has turned out to be a very good decision. And, it is my view that all the company needs to do is stay the current course to regain trust. Although they could stand to downthrottle the hedges.
Release of 168 million barrels out of strategic reserves? Russian production is going to lose an estimated 3 million a day - that release will only last 56 days on the market compared to what we're probably losing. And, almost another half-million will be lost in Mexican exports by 2023. Not to mention refinery capacity lost in Ukraine during the war. And just the other day I was watching Eric Nuttall's discussion with Cornerstone Analytics and they pointed out that world's largest oil processing facility (in Abqiaq, Saudi Arabia) was damaged badly by a drone stikes in 2019 and it's still offline. And the most damaging thing, the new green deal - chronic underinvestment in traditional energy by feckless Western politicians. Forget the 52 week high, I'm keeping my eye on an all-time-high for crude. A rubber band moment is coming, in my view.
And, I was invested in 2016, I was even invested in 2012. Not as much as today. Today I'm waaayyy in and making money again. I tried to buy as much as we could afford when it was down in the $1.00s. I wouldn't usually talk about this but I'm in a mood tonight, my wife had some serious issues vis-a-vis her work because of the COOF19 and things were tight. Not as bad as some people but we felt it and fresh money for investing was not in the cards. Things changed all at once at a certain point. So, I've done most of my buying in the $5.00s, which is great. It also means that even $15 means my kids can get a professional degrees, instead of taking grievance studies at a some garbage university like Carleton or Nipissing.
BigJoe778 wrote: Last time CPG saw $20/share(2016) the company was basically in the middle of falling off a cliff. Dividend had recently been reduced from $0.23/month to $0.03/month to $0.03/quarter. Share dilution was a huge problem and only got worse in the months/years to follow. The market has not forgotten this and believe me it's gonna take a pile more work before it does forget it. At the current price and rate of NCIB, they're looking at roughly 4 years before the share count is back to 2016 levels provided there's no further dilution for acquisitions. Let's not forget they have a history of that as well with many outside of Kaybob being terrible decisions. It's not like they can magically surprise this with excess share buybacks as they have to state thier intent of how much before they execute. To date over the last couple of years they've even failed to buyback what they were allowed too. Do I see potential in this company?.....yes I do as I'm currently heavily invested. Do I see my investment more than doubling in 2022?......I flat out don't think there's any chance with the way the stock is currently trading, the conservative approach the company is taking with shareholder returns and the overall market dislike for the company(this is more than obvious on most trading days as it lags its peers on the way up and exceeds its peers on the way down). At the end of the day if we hit $12 by end of year that's roughly a 20% from the 52 week high. I'll certainly be happy with a 20% return on my investment in the next 8 months. Who wouldn't?