RE: interesting article Here is another interesting article borrowed from Mihal on the Hotcopper site:
International Swiss banker Credit Suisse is turning bullish on Chinese thermal coal imports, predicting a rise from 131Mt last year to 160Mt during 2012 and leaping ahead to 230Mt in 2015, according to local media. The bank reasons recent policy decisions, such as consolidation of coal mines and the closure of small inefficient mines, will lead to China taking such a strong stand in the thermal seaborne trade. While China will continue to meet more than 90% of its coal demand from domestic sources, the report said "the country was getting used to a combination of sustainable resource preservation supported by imports, rather than maintaining independence through maximizing output".
While the banker estimates the rise in imports won't keep ahead of domestic growth, it forecasts a US$127/t Newcastle FOB average for 6,000 kcal/kg thermal coal during 2012, up from $122/t in 2011. Credit Suisse speculates the price will rise steadily to $140/t FOB by 2015.
Source: coalportlal.com