Crane Co T.CR

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Acquisistion

[gonatgasgo]

Thanks for posting on this board.  It is so quiet here.  Feel free to add anything anytime.

 

Quintessential1 wrote: That makes sense but whoever got CR's attachie lands was private or we would know who got them.

That's kind of why I figured Petronas as they too have big LNG quotas coming.

GLTY and all

gonatgasgo wrote:

If I were Shell, I would want CR's land.  The acquisition price would be a rounding error for Shell. 

Quintessential1 wrote: It's possible they showed interest but with having a pretty large section that they couldn't pull the trigger on already at the time adding more may have seemed like a wrong move then with the debt load they were carrying.  Fast forward to now and I wonder who those lands actually ended up going to?

It is funny that you mention an all-stock deal being a must as I was about to suggest sweetening the deal for those that didn't want stock.  Say all cash at $1B CAD minus debt which would bring the offer closer to $5.60 or so per share and up the premium to about 30%+  or so which may be more in line with a takeover offer. 

I was also thinking that ARX management my not be as willing to dillute their share float since they just finished working so hard to bring it under 600 million.  But hey, what's another 30- 40 million shares right?  Just have to initiate another NCIB and buy back 7% of the float or so again.

The simple fact is that any offer would have to be enough to keep out of a bidding war with the likes of TOU or Shell or Petronas the latter of which is probably where the attachie lands went. 

 Anyway food for thought.  I am not sure when the price target is expected to go up on CR but ARX is looking like into 2025 with LNG Canada coming online and its own attachie coming on-stream.

GLTY and all

 

gonatgasgo wrote: Interesting.  I think people on this board expect more from our share than $4.97, however, we are vulnerable, being frustrated with the poor performance.  An all-stock deal is a must, which is what you are offering.

The best scenario would be for Terry to make the formal offer publicly, and as a result, CR's shares would get rerated at a higher price.  Whether it happens or not, who knows.  Keep in mind employees, directors, Equinox and Canoe own almost 40% of the firm.

When Crew sold its Attachie land, I would have expected ARX to take advantage of it, but that was not the case. I have no idea if they showed interest or not.

That's my take.

Quintessential1 wrote: Hey there!  I'm an ARX shareholder that follows this stock and other peers in the sector.

I like Crew.  I like their assets and relatively debt free position.  I think they are undervalued.

I also like where they are positioned right in the middle of ARX Monteny assets.

 I think they are undervalued.

That 5 year plan, while proabably good for the overall company, has been a drag on share price.

That's fine if you want to hold until the end or close to it.  It is definately going up IMO by then.

But how would shareholder's feel about being acquired by ARX now or soon?

ARX share price is trading just below ATHs.  

CR is trading on the low side below 52 high and 52 week low averages.

So what would ARX have to offer to make it worth you while and check yes on the sell vote box?

Say a 5 CR for every 1 ARX share trade?  

That's about a 17% premium as share prices stand now plus all crew shareholders would get an instant dividend of .68 per year per 5 shares or about 3.2% annually with dillution.  

On top of that you become a shareholder in a very solidly managed company with extremely good growth potential.

Am I selling you?  LOL

Just something to pass a bit of time and explore an avenue that I have been considering.

Let me know what you think?

And whatever it is and whatever happens GLTA here.