Crew Energy Inc T.CR

What may Crew get from their 7 wells at West Septimus?

[BeatTheOddsSqua]

Some quick math using info from Crew's July Presentation (3-32 pad production) indicates that the West Septimus 7 well pad that Crew has begun drilling could produce 18.9 Mmcf/d gas, 3577 Bbls/d condy and 1078 Bbls/d NGL's  for a total of 7805 BOE/d. 

These wells would double the Septimus conde production to more than 6900 Bbls/day and increase gas production from 32 Mmcf/d to more than 50 Mmcf/d.

The sales revenue before royalties, processing and transportation using $3 cdn gas, $50 cdn condy and $20 cdn NGL's could be in excess of $90 million in the first year of production. This would cover the entire 2020 Exploration and Development budget of $75-85 million.

It is interesting to note that Crew is essentially taking the $70 million in proceeds from their infrastructure deal and re-investing it in a project that will return all that capital back to them in 12 months and then continue to generate cash flow for at least 4 years more. If they are successful that is a nice piece of business.

I noticed during my review that Crew had only completed 4 of the 5 wells drilled from the 3-32 pad, so there is possibly of another wellbore being completed before years end.

Please check my math as I have been watching the Leafs game while writing this. Darn they lost...hoping for as many Canadian teams as possible in the playoffs.

[langstrum]

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[gonatgasgo]

Thanks for your analysis.  I hope you are right.  What Crew needs to do is not as much pay down the debt, but start generating free cash flows.  If they could increase production to 26,000 - 28,000 boe/d, then they would be in the area of generating $25 Million of FCF per year.  That would help the stock price.   Kelt paid down their debt and it did not do anything

[BeatTheOddsSqua]

Thanks GONATGAS for your feedback. Crew should easily be in the 28,000 Boe/day range once the 7 new well pad is on stream in Q1 2021. I am intrigued by the potential buyout as mentioned by TOPADVISOR. Generally if you are courting potential purchasers, here are some steps you should take. 1) issue new options to staff and management at a low price (Issued April 2020 options $0.16) 2) sell any

[BeatTheOddsSqua]

Sorry forgot a step: Step 4) Have insiders acquire shares before any sales process is formalized or unsolicited offer is received. (Management and Directors of Crew are acquiring shares on the open market)

[BeatTheOddsSqua]

And one more step... Step 5) Invite your financial backers to the party. "New York-based hedge fund Mason Hill Advisors recently disclosed that it owned 23.6 million shares as of April 30, representing 15.1 per cent of Crew's 156 million shares outstanding. That compares with 20.2 million shares owned as of March 31, 2020, and with just 12.8 million shares owned as of Dec. 31, 2018

[topadvisor1]

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[gonatgasgo]

BeatTheOddsSqua, you make very good points.  Since Dale owns so many shares that he purchased at a much higher price, I doubt he would take $0.50 or even $1.  Crew is on the right track now if 1-nat gas prices could hold and improve over the years. 2-production could go toward the 28,000 boe/d 3- the lenders are leaving them alone and not forcing them to do things they do not want Even

[gonatgasgo]

BeatTheOdds, I was looking at your calculations versus the presentation. The presentations says 4 wells producing an average of 1,119 boe/d. I have a feeling the 1,119 is not for each well but rather all 4 of them. As a result, an additional 7 wells is likely to produce only 1,950 boe/d.  Anybody knows what are the expectations for these 7 wells?  

[BeatTheOddsSqua]

GONAT, GONAT, GONAT...Crew had better not be drilling 3000 m horizontal wells in the Montney for 280 BOE/day! Please promise me you will never mention your BOE conversion methodolgy to a production engineer. From the July presentation: Crew 3-32 Pad (2019) 4.25 wells completed 4 ‘B’ zone well average IP90: 1,119 boe/d 2,723 mcf/d, 511 bbls/d condy, 154 bbls/d NGLs, 187 bbls/mmcf CGR Here

[Seppelt]

Let’s not forget declines and conde decline faster than natural gas. The average Condensate production went from about 2,000 bbl/d in 2017 to 2,700 bbl/d in 2019. Slow pace considering so-called ultra condensate-rich area. Q1/2020 saw a jump to 3,340 bbl/d then down again in Q2, because of restricted production due to low prices and also declines. In stronger hands the area would be producing

[topadvisor1]

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[TheGambler888]

Crew is not burden by debt. What are you talking about? Also if price of condy goes up and natural gas goes up means more netbacks. So why sell anything???? Price of gas goes up and that's exactly when Crew Energy needs to sell.