Crew Energy Inc T.CR

After listening

[Moemoney42]

to Mike Rose of Toumaline on BNN I've decided to pick grab another 50% higher position in Crew on this pull back.. with AECO ramping up so hard they should be able to throw on some hedges and capitalize on this price spike..?  ;-)

[Moemoney42]

He also mentioned they plan to grow organically at ~5% but are looking at a number of small tuck ins to grow at a quicker rate as opposed to a large merger such as Seven Gen & Arc just did.. hmmm.. I'll be one of the tuck ins he's looking at is Crew..??? ;-)

[robert41]

We are 45% hedged for 2021 and 36 % for 2022. I like the balance of the hedge amount and the unhedged prudent mgmt. might be a bit conservative but safe and smart overall.

[BeatTheOddsSqua]

Robert, I was going to look at the hedged volumes today so thanks for presenting them. What gas production rate did you use in your calculation? Eg. 120, 140, 160 Mmcf/day?

[robert41]

Those numbers were just the basic numbers out of the presentation I didn't do any numbers because Sadly it's all beyond my pay grade I'm no expert on the details. I leave that stuff to the smarter people on these boards. 

[BeatTheOddsSqua]

No worries Robert.  Gonatgo do you happen to have the 2020 monthly totals for hedged gas in a spreadsheet? I can grab them from the website, but I am busy looking at the new drills at the moment to see if I can come up with a production estimate.

[BeatTheOddsSqua]

2021 monthly totals

[gonatgasgo]

This is what I have, taking the figures from their website.  It is as of Nov. 6, 2020, so a bit old.  I did not adjust for the fact that some figures are gj and others are mmbtu.  Actually, most are gj.  Let me know if you need the precision and I will adjust. Jan. 2021 to March 2021: 67,500 April 2021 to June 2021: 63,000 July 2021 to Sept. 2021: 59,000 Oct. 2021: 56,500 Nov.

[BeatTheOddsSqua]

Thanks Gonatgo that is a big help. I was trying to get my head around how the hedges are affecting Q1 2021 sales revenue. Natural Gas Production 2020 Q3 = 86.7 MMcf/day 2020 Q4 = 95 MMcf/day 2021 Q1= (50 Mmcf/day 30 day Average  at Restricted rates)+ 95 MMcf/day = 145 MMcf/day If Feb 2021 NG Production is approx. 145 Mmcf/day with 67.5 MMcf/day hedged then 46.5 % hedged. Makes sense. If

[gonatgasgo]

Thanks Beattheodds for the detailed work.  I am just wondering if your figures are slightly too positive.  If you look at the Feb. 1 news release near the end of the document under supplementary information, they indicate what is the "current" production.  Condensate is at 2,600 and nat gas at 120,000.    

[BeatTheOddsSqua]

OK Gonatgo, lets's try Crew's numbers. 67.5 MMcf/day hedged / 120 MMcf/day = 56.25% hedged  56.25 % hedged on a high decline Montney production? Wow that is a dangerous game to play. Here is the key, define "current production".

[gonatgasgo]

BeattheOdds, You might be right.  Page 13 of the January presentation seems to show production of almost 150 Gj/d and they talk about having 45% of the 2021 production hedged.   I am just telling you what I see and I cannot reconcile these figures. :-) I would really appreciate hearing from you when you think pad 3-32 will start producing.    

[gonatgasgo]

I meant 150 Gj/d in January and February 2021.  After that, it moves higher.    

[BeatTheOddsSqua]

Here is what Crew says: The six-well 3-32 pad at Greater Septimus is currently being completed with initial production expected to come on-stream in Q2/21. Do I believe that? No.

[gonatgasgo]

WTI over $60, Henry Hub over $3.03 tonight, we need the six well 3-32 pad to start producing as soon as possible.      

[Cheadle12]

Jan 29th, 2021 Crew just licensed new drilling at Lloyd. Look it upon BOEReport. ~The Great Cheadle (TGC).

[gonatgasgo]

Do you think the wells at pad 3-32 are operating yet?  The presentation seems to indicate it will happen in Q1, and boereport.com seems to show the wells were released in mid-December.    

[gonatgasgo]

I don't but let me see what I can do.