RE:RE:Longs got timing all wrong with their thesisI can't help but shake my head after reading your post. Again I acknowledge your effort to come up with your calculation. Congratulations your finding get you to identify a value stock called CRH. And its usefulness stops right there. Like my previous post today said very clearly FCF is a measure of the health of a company to operate and run a business, NOT a measure of earning power in the past, now and future. With the uncertainty in future revenue you only identified a value stock that get lower and lower in share price. The numbers used and derived from your assumption is dynamic, not static in nature. You can only take it as is for this moment. I do not see the merit to stick to it without updates. And that is exactly for a value stock you believe in right now. The reality is CRH is in a show-me-the-money mode in the coming quarters.
As a seasoned investor I suggest you put more effort to find out the current consensus of street estimates for net eps and revenues. Also return to check the updates from time to time.
Your ultimate profit depends on where is your entry point and exit point - it does not matter how long you hold it, 6 months or 6 years.