RE:Seeking Alpha Article - CanexusThanks for posting.
I believe his note makes a few inaccurate or aggressive assumptions.
Firstly, the assumption that a buyer will pay up for the Chlor Alki (normalize earnings, plus synergies) with an industry multiple is not realistic. I don't think there is a hungry enough buyer out there that needs to pay up for capacity.
Superior for instance doubled its capacity from 180,000 (WMT) to 360,000 with an investment of $46 million. Their 2014 Revenue was $654 million vs. Canexus at $213 million. I'll be straight up and honest, I can't reconcile fully which chemical groups mix are part of each as each company measures volume and capacity differently (wet vs dry capacity, MECU) and the Chloralkali segment includes Chlorine and HCI production as well. The facilities ability to optimize the chemical mix is important (similar to distillers).
The point being, if Superior can double its capacity with industry leading efficiency for $46 million, why would they pay $280 million to add what is ~1/3 more capacity.
My second main point is that I don't think proceeds will be allowed to pay down convertibles. Canexus is still desperate to sell in order to bring their covenants onside. The senior lender has priority over sales process vs. quasi equity holders. A refi will involve either expensive equity or more likely a discounted convert (better yield than dividend).
I also don't think a dividend increase to 4 cents is within the relm of possibilty with all excess cash going to debt reduction.
I appreciate someone taking the time to evaluate the potential for a company. I do however believe in a more measured approach though. This analysis was a "Blue Sky" approach which isn't realistic.
Good luck.