Post by
pm1231 on Apr 20, 2014 10:02am
Why I'm Kicking Myself
For weeks - i've been hearing the banter on this sight...and i'm really pis*ed with myself! The biggest lessons learned (hindsight is always 20/20)
1) Tune out the distractors who don't know what the heck they're talking about....(Kherson..ahem!)
2) Tune IN to the people who do....(Nawar/PM123)
I was going through the previous posts on this site - and i'm kicking myself I didn't buy in but waited because I was a nervous nelly....even though smart people like Nawar and PM123 spelled out good arguments why this was a buy.
Back on March 12 - PM said this...
For example - if Obama rejects Keystone or delays it further - crude by rail will explode - and there won't be any concerns with future cashflow or locking up capacity since every producer will be looking to ship thier oil to the best markets by rail to get the best price.
He also said that same day....
CIBC is suggesting a "dividend cut is inevitable"...but for those that read the research report - it has to do with thier assumptions on future cashflow related to NATO...specifically - thier thesis is that the abundance of pipelines that will come on board by 2017 will reduce the WTI to WCS spread - diminishing the business case for crude to rail (which is more expensive than pipeline by a few dollars)........ I don't quite buy thier assessment of pipelines that will become available by 2017 - assumes Keystone, Northern Gateway, etc - all pass regulatory hurdles - and are built by 2017 and as most of you know - we are quite a ways from even a decision (5 years and counting for Keystone)....I would counter - the longer the delays in these pipeline projects - the longer companies like Canexus can extend the life of crude to rail beyond thier payback period - which makes future cashflow beyond 2015 sound (in my books) - and a total payout ratio of 78% if other estimates of EBITDA hold in 2015......more than sustainable - something the BOD needs to decide....
Monday is going to be a boon for those that bought in under $5.00 per share - so hats off taking the risk. Narwar and PM are probably laughing all the way to the (since I remember PM bought large positions - in hindisight - thier conviction in this should have been enough for me to at least pick up some shares). Idiots like me will feel the pain when the energy sector sells off tomorrow (I was heavy into oil stocks)......
Lesson learned!
Comment by
pm1231 on Apr 20, 2014 10:06am
I figured this would be a clever way to express what people like Kherson and others might be saying at this moment.....:-) Sorry - but having been through all the crazy posts on this site - this point had to get across!
Comment by
Kherson on Jan 30, 2015 10:19am
PM1231, you posted this foolishness back on April 20, 2014. Have you not learned anything since then? Hats off to those who took the risk...LOL... Kherson P.S. Where is Nawar?