Post by
Serge001 on Apr 30, 2014 1:14pm
POR
BlueCollar: Thanks for taking the time to explain the terminology. The first part that I had missed was what the POR short form stood for. From the context of your explaination I figure it is PayOut Ratio.
That said, the POR would go down automatically once they are not spending CapEx on NATO even without income from NATO. But I do understand the extra load on Divs re: 150mil share issue.
In an Oil and Gas comany, they worry more about CF verus earnings per share and often payout over 100%. I see that CUS is different in that they cannot just turn up production and quickly sell it.
BTW the term is GAAP not GAPP. I figure it was a typo.
CUS seems like a commodity company in terms of few barriers to entry other than they may be a low cost producer. Their Financial Reports come across as very stodgy and not nearly as exciting or creative certainly as Oil & Gas companies. I take it that the NATO is an attempt to break out of an otherwise uneventful business model with little real growth.
The question remains for me, as to whether this company has the management to effectively control and grow itself into an area sounds like it is a new frontier (NATO) for them. Can they compete with others that may be more experienced in this area?
CUS seems to be in a bit of a crisis mode to stem the bleeding. Do they have the talent to pull this out of the fire? Being honest about the problem does not imply competence to fix it. It rather reflects badly that they did not see their incompetence before it got full blown.
That said, I would be very happy to get the 11.5% div but would not like to risk the loss of principal if they cut the div. Perhaps the cut in the div would restore some shareholder confidence but it only be window dressing because cutting the div merely shows that they really don't have surety that they can handle NATO well and move the cash flow out of crisis.
Comment by
Kherson on May 01, 2014 7:35pm
Serge, you are a smart man to steer clear of Canexus at this point in time. Even though Gary is now gone, we still have a bunch of imbeciles on the BOD. Wait until Canexus selects a new CEO before jumping in. Right now the ship has no captain and the crew are manning the lifeboats... Kherson
Comment by
oilbarron on May 01, 2014 9:53pm
Very true! The NATO CBR terminal was and continues to be horribly executed. Gibson and USDG have completed their Hardisty CBR terminal on budget and almost on time (due second quester)....very well executed. Big difference and very different ROI.
Comment by
Nawaralsaadi on May 02, 2014 12:25pm
Great post Blue. I continue to be impressed by the quality of the analysis and input of many of the posters here, and I am confident common sense and patience will win out in the end. Regards, Nawar
Comment by
BlueCollar51 on May 02, 2014 1:06pm
Serge; The CEO has a lot of influence but it is the BOD that makes the dividend decisions. If there is going to be a dividend cut now would be the best time. I am expecting either a cut or a commitment (NOT a Guarantee) to maintain the current rate and some guidance re how they can justify whatever the decision is. They need to address the current uncertainty. For what its worth that’s my opinion.