CANEXUS CORP 6.5 PCT DEBS T.CUS.DB.D

Canexus Guidance for 2015

[HAWK37]

So, based on Ocean112's e-mail from yesterday (Ocean112 appears to be the unofficial spokesperson for Canexus, definitely an insider), Canexus is planning the following for 2015: 1. 2015E EBITDA of $91.5 million. Cash flow for the HCl business will decrease 20% to $21.5 million (that will help the sale of N Van). 2. NATO will have negative cash flow of $15 million in 2015 (who wouldn't pay $250 million for that business?). 3. Canexus has a $65 million capital program for 2015 which will be fully debt financed. 4. Canexus will end 2015 with $410 million in debt (not including the January dividend payment of $17 million). 5. Canexus will take its bank debt up to 4.5 times EBITDA, which will be at the limit of its covenants. What do they say about being in a hole? The first thing to do is to stop digging. Damn the torpedoes! RH

[Kherson]

"NATO will have a negative cash flow of $15 million for 2015"? That is a big difference from Doug's comments at the Whistler Conference about Blunderheim being slightly cash flow positive! Kherson

[Kherson]

Hawk37, if the email that Ocean112 sent you is indeed based on any actual management guidance for 2015, then he has just torpedoed Canexus in getting a good price for any of their assets that are up for sale. In the latest presentation that Canexus has on it's website, they state that for 2015, "Primary focus will be resetting our foundation for growth through operational optimization and

[Kherson]

[BlueCollar51]

So, based on Ocean112's e-mail from yesterday (Ocean112 appears to be the unofficial spokesperson for Canexus, definitely an insider), Canexus is planning the following for 2015: 1. 2015E EBITDA of $91.5 million. Cash flow for the HCl business will decrease 20% to $21.5 million (that will help the sale of N Van). 2. NATO will have negative cash flow of $15 million in 2015 (who wouldn't pay

[Calgaryrider]

This is an insightful post and backs up my 50/50 statement earlier on Canexus.  It is no better than gambling.  As the price of oil does not follow fundamentals, it follows OPEC's decisions and investor sentiment, this is no better than playing Blackjack by the book. Anyways, I am aware that Canexus has indeed cut a huge swath of employees.  Unfortunately (for them - and

[Kherson]

[LegoGuy]

They are obviously planning to take on more debt so it looks like this 'Unofficial Guidance' is true. Scary.

[HAWK37]

With EBITDA of $92 million, at 8 times (very generous), the company is worth $736 million. With debt of $633 million ($616 mm + the January dividend), the equity is worth $103 million, or 55 cents a share. At that price, it yields 7.3 % (with a 4 cent dividend) which is about right. Lots of downside.

[Kherson]

The big question concerning EBITDA is again, Blunderheim... Kherson

[roniejames]

The big question this board wants to know is how much money did you make after selling Canexus and putting all your cash in PLT.UN at $5.00 eh Kherson ? You seem to be very knowledgeable