RE:CVE/ATHGood points and I'm not saying you're wrong especially with a longer time frame runway but:
1/ What is the Duvernay collaboration for?
A life boat spinout for ATH management after they are bought like CEI when VET bought LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION?
2/ The tax pools would be handy but would have been even handier and cheaper when CVE had that $1B tax bill. Were they that short sighted? Its possible as they either did't see or didn't want the market to see the big tax bill coming.
3/ CVE has plenty of oil reserves and future production what they could use is condy from the Duvernay Energy liquids and this may speed this up rather than just put a foot in the door. (which it may do too.)
4/ Debt free means little to CVE as they would either have to add more debt or dillute their stock both of which they appear to be actively trying to avoid ...in fact working against.
5/ CVE has debt and by any metric, be it their own guidance or interest rate levels it doesn't seem to be an oportune time to add more. Not that this couldn't radically change later with debt targets met and interest rates lowered especially if FFO improves a lot.
6/ 100 years is a long way out and reserves have become less of a factor when calculating overall value. The valuation may vary with your peak oil demand outlook, your overall investment timeline and how much you love your grandkids lol.
7/ $7 per share represents a 40% premium on an 8 year high stock price. Why would they pay it?
To add to my point I am not sure why RBC, which made a point of evaluating these producers for this very purpose, would have slotted CVE and ATH into the neutral slot unless:
1/ Their M&A acquisiton window is smaller than yours and you did say you had no time frame.
2/ The neutral slot was intended to be for merger candidates.
3/ They are intentionally trying to make us look the other way for their own gain.
4/ They just plain missed your points.
If we are all around for a while we might find out but it is a worthwhile discussion anyway.
GLTY and all
andy604 wrote: Well its a very logical marriage on these points:
1/ They are partners in the Duvernay [roject
2/ ATH has tax pools of approx $3b
3/ ATH 1.2 billion B/O/E in place
4/ ATH no debt to speak of
5/ CVE has all the goods to buy, plus they have refineries for ATH to fill their quota
6 ATH has 100 yrs of oil
7/ At $7 a share would cost CVE or others 3.7 b, the tax pool would be seen as a big plus. The buy would probably end up a little more if oil contiues to rise
I would advise you to read both presentations on CVE and ATH, any other comments , this my own views,