RE:RE:buyout coming....north of 50 bucksCraigbad wrote: Its not fear mongering, its simply looking at a chart and realizing the reality of your position. Lower highs and lower lows are telling a story of market sentiment towards the sector and management. If you have this much conviction at $32, make sure you have it at $22 so you don't sell at the wrong time and lock in a loss. Shorts were taking positions at this level and expect to see it in the teens. The chart is in their favor as every possible indicator says sell. I don't know who'll be right, the market will determine that in time, but right now the odds are stacked against us. I have a $30 position i'll be watching closely this week, it may be better to lock in a small gain and buy into strength later than get trapped underwater praying a buyout comes.
Your maintain your conviction advice is good, as long as nothing material changes between the time it moves from $32 to $22. But a move like that will almost certainly be due to something material changing for the company. Perhaps on May 13th the company lowers guidance. Maybe that could cause a spike down to the $22 range. Who knows. As for the rest of your advice, yes, small gains are better than no gains - or losses.
Personally, I'm not long, but I want to be. When we spiked from $30 to $40 it was based on rumors of an interested party. Have those rumors been totally proven false? Is that why we are back to 31 and change? Or is it that the market (or institutions) suspect bad news on Friday?
It will be interesting to see if it keeps falling ahead of the news next week. IF it does, be afraid. If it doesn't, $31.70 might seem super cheap a week later.
The risk/reward ratio just doesn't balance for me at this price. However if we see the high $20s this week, I might have to start buying CXR again.