RE:Brexit outcomes and Cxr
Here is my understanding of the Brexit situation: I believe Britain's new PM Theresa May has stated that Britain will proceed with Brexit, but nothing can happen until Britain formally requests exit from the EU, and this step will likely not be enacted until Britain has at least some preliminary negotiations with other EU members.......My guess is that Britain will probably trigger Brexit at some point next year......Once the request is formally made by Britain to exit the EU, there is a two-year period of negotiation to strike a new deal....If no deal is struck within the two year timeframe, the country leaves without any formal trade agreement with the rest of the EU, which would be bad for both sides.......I think this process will likely stretch into a long 2 or 3 year ordeal, but if Britain exits, it will likely do so with a replacement trade agreement that is quite good and perhaps even a net benefit to Britain .....Word has it that Ms. May is a tough lady and shrewd negotiator, and EU countries, particularly Germany, apparently rely on Britain for a good portion of their exports, so I doubt Germany or other large EU exporters wouldn't want to cut off their nose to spite their face, as the saying goes........Bottom line: I think Brexit is overblown in terms of potential fallout, but investors in stocks with British ties may continue to be punished because of the uncertainty......