RE:RE:RE:If you believe Concordia share price will recover That's a good strategy only if you are bullish on the long term prospects!?
After looking at a number of past companies, I fear that your $10 strike price might be very optimistic considering this has a good chance of being worthless if the forensics reveal the debt and liabilities are higher than the declining assets. And this company continues to be pounded on from all sides as most directors hold very little and large insiders continue to sell!
Check Trimel Pharma, TO.ASP, anyone who had call options expecting higher prices from its fall from grace ended up with worthless options.
The CEO of Concordia was co-founder of Trimel from it's IPO days to 2011/2012 at its highs. Check the graphs. It's a little shocking. Shares at 1/20 what they were from its all time highs and didn't have the number of issues this company is currently facing.
If Cinven Private Equity flexes its muscle, Concordia might be in trouble. I am concerned Concordia might not make the required minimum 50% earnout due to Cinven this month and the rest, if delayed, racks up high interested daily accrued and only until Feb 2017. What happens next if they can't meet the earnout required under the terms of the Cinven AMCo deal???
I'm not sure how anyone can be bullish here. I'm just trying to determine how bearish I want to be.
$9 might seem a bit high to short at but if it hits the $1-3 range as some traders are expecting short term, it's quite attractive!
argentia77 wrote: Colt: Here's another way to look at the math. Suppose I'm long 5000 shares. I sell all my shares at today's closing price of $9.28 and receive 5000 x $9.28 = $46,400. I then buy 5000 call options that expire Apr 21, 2017 with a $10 strike for $1.95/share at a total cost of $9,750 (plus brokerage fees). That leaves me with $46,400 - $9,700 = $36,700 in cash + the 5000 call options. I can now give Concordia more than 6 months to complete its strategic review or whatever and come up with back- to-back positive quarters. I would be in the money if at any time its share price rises above 11.95 ($10 + $1.95) from now until April 21. If it doesn't and the sp continues to sink or stall under $11.95 I still have $36,700 in my account.