RE:RE:odds of developing a drug to commercial stage 5000-1
I've dealt with bureaucrats all my career. They don't need to wait for any bills to change the way they act. The follow the leaders before the bills.
Look at the marijuana laws in Canada. There is no bill yet but law enforcement and bureaucrats know that it's coming so they don't take any action on items that's in contravention of existing laws. The pendulum has swung well ahead of the laws and it shows.
Bureaucrats also don't need bills to make AMCo (Concordia International)'s live a complete misery. I know for sure that all the staff at all levels at the NHS will see AMCo coming and will tell them "wait" on everything. They can come up with all the excuses in the world to delay things today because they know the political, public and legal landscape does not favour the past actions of the company. And AMCo is owned by a foreign company now? Even worst for AMCo today!
I am betting Concordia implodes within 6 months and will be trading under $1 by the end of February if not sooner. The press is actually quite reserved on its backlash. BNN is in a tough position because it was promoting CXR heavily.
And anyone who thinks that business man Trump will put himself at risk by supporting price gouging and excessive business practices are fooling themselves. Didn't he call the Turing CEO a "scumbag" and "most hated man on the planet"?
Trump loves to be loved. He will side with public opinion on this and against Concordia and Valeant, the "Canadian/Off-shore pharma company" takking advantage of US citizens. These US politicians will go after VRX and CXR first. And with cause. Both are great shorts from my point of view with everything we know so far.